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BTC: April full correction to 45.8k?

Price action in the last six hours puts a full correction in April squarely on the table.

If this plays out like it did in January and February, we can expect a significant further drop in the coming hours.

Using Fibonacci analysis of previous corrections as a guide, we can project — though not confirm — that BTC hit the 0.702 in its initial downside impulse and now will fill in that wick with a full 4hr candle close on the 0.786 level, at 49.918.

In this second wave, BTC will probably wick down below that, perhaps reaching to 48k.

We'll then likely see a strong bounce to the upside.

But as in previous full corrections, this is simply a denouement, before the real bottom comes in.

Based on Fibonacci analysis of the January and February corrections, this could come in at 45.8k.

Nothing is certain.

This could be a shallower correction. But right now, it seems not.

On the macro Fibonacci (see linked analysis "BTC: 83.6k as possible peak?"), this would be a bounce from the 0.702 down more than halfway into the 0.5 Fibonacci level.

A bearish sign, but reversing the macro Fibonacci, a very strong demand zone between the 0.5 and 0.618.

Feel free to comment.

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18 Apr 2021 12:30:25: I should have mentioned, but if this plays out, the correction would print a lower low. So, from December: higher high, higher low (January), higher high, higher low (February), higher high, higher low (March), higher high, lower low (April). Added to the lower high in March, a warning sign, perhaps?

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