Inv. H&S neckline support | 5500 target

已更新

Hope you enjoyed my analysis! Let me know if y'all have any questions or you don't understand something. I'll be happy to explain it. I want everyone to understand how basic price action works so you can educate yourself and make better decisions for your own capital.

Cheers!

註釋

Here's my video from mid-July calling the top of $8500:

註釋

Below are rules for the next bull run and my target for the end of this bear cycle and the beginning of the next bull cycle

Here is my formula for the next bull run:
1. Make exchanges safer for investors
2. Regulation needs to come in
3. Strong catalyst such as starting ETFs or government(s) moving money into crypto
4. Clean up fraud and manipulation in the market
5. Mass adoption and use from retail consumers and corporations
6. Panic + capitulation to bring price down significantly
7. More direct fiat on-ramps built for the novice retail consumer to get in on crypto
8. Get weak hands out of the market and put BTC 1.93% and alts in the hands of strong investors who believe in this space

If we check off all the 8 points above fairly successfully, I believe we are ready for the next bull run.

When will this happen? Just a guess: If the past is any indication anywhere from 3 months to another 9 months.

What will be the bottom? Just a guess: Somewhere between the $3500-4500. I came up w/ this range because BTC 1.93% has a history of retracing 80-90% from its previous bull cycle beginning price. Also, there is significant support around this range as well as the 100 MA (weekly).

Please see my post here to see where BTC may be headed:

Bitcoin drawdown comparisons beginning till now

My opinion is the bottom for Bitcoin 1.93% will not be a straight drop and then reverse (V bounce). I think this market will bleed to the point where people just lose all hope and this takes a long time to accomplish. Whether this is 3 more months or another full year. It will happen eventually.

I am bullish in BTC 1.93% in the long-run but for now I am still bearish and have been since Feb/March.

Fun prediction: I think we over the next few months we go to low $5000 and break under that 786 fib mentioned in my analysis above. We spent the next few months under this level and finally start the next bull run around March 4, 2019. How did I come up with that date?
Read Jake Chervinsky's Twitter on his BTC ETF decision delay calculation.

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p.s I apologize for my voice being low. Done with vacation so will have my whole setup to provide the best quality TA tomorrow :)

註釋

The inverse h&s neckline has been breached. We are now heavily bearish and the target mentioned of $5500 now has more probability of hitting.