BTC/USD Bearish trend starting?

Hello fellow traders, as much as I'd love for bitcoin to keep rising, this is just an outlook on a potential bearish scenario for the long term. Basically BTC has never hit the 300 day moving average in its previous bull runs. last time it did is as shown, in the 2017/18 bull run. It "dead cat bounced" from the 300 to the 100 and found strong resistance. An 80% rejection would put us at a prime buying level of 10-13k, as that has been where majority of BTC trading action has taken place.
I see the situation as this, I feel we will bounce up to the 100 day ma ( around 42ish), then price will either find resistance at that level or blast through it and come down to confirm it as support... since this is the first time a bull run has had a pullback to this magnitude, I still wouldn't doubt the fact we have a first for the 2021 bull run; a hit to the 300 day and off for one (possible) final run. we shall see!