I've labeled this as neutral since I don't want to mislead anyone and also because I stand by my previous post: Bitcoin can ALWAYS go either way and there will ALWAYS, in retrospect, be a technical analysis-based explanation/rationalization for the move.
That said, I think when we look at the monthly chart we can clearly see a pattern with Bitcoin's bear and bull markets and the 10 SMA (simple moving average). When we cross above it we go into a bull market. When we cross below it we enter a bear market. There' hasn't been a single fakeout or exception to this (yet), and even if we go down just one notch to the weekly chart we have multiple fakeouts with the same scenario. So - to me, it's a strong and viable pattern to judge bear vs. bull.
Per this chart, what we are in right now is the first bull market pull-back to the monthly 10 SMA, just like we had in early 2016 after the first bullish explosion/run-up. In that time (2016), we only ever got to within about 8% of the 10 SMA (our low last month at 7690 got us to within about 7%). Also notable is that the RSI and Stochastic are at the same exact point that they were back in early 2016 in that first big pullback to the monthly 10 SMA. That pullback was about 19% of the size of the upward move. The current pullback is about 16% of the size of the upward move.
We have very bearish things going on, of course: we've completed broken the weekly 21 EMA, with volume, and we have the death cross (neither of which occurred in any of the previous bull markets). BUT - given the current monthly chart with the 10 SMA, I am still slightly more inclined to be bullish and to see this area as a potentially huge buying opportunity.
That said, if this month's candle closes underneath the 10 SMA, not only will we be entering a new bear market but we will be entering a new bear market having not made a macro higher high but a macro lower low, which would put us in "unprecedented" territory and mostly likely mean we are headed also to a macro lower low (ie, sub 3K) and Bitcoin will, for the first time ever, actually be losing value.
In other words, closing this month's candle under the 10 SMA would pretty much be the most bearish thing in Bitcoin history. However, closing above it and especially having a green month would mean we are essentially doing bull-market business as usual and gearing up for our next big run and most likely a new higher high, and this will have turned out to be a massive bear trap.
That said, I think when we look at the monthly chart we can clearly see a pattern with Bitcoin's bear and bull markets and the 10 SMA (simple moving average). When we cross above it we go into a bull market. When we cross below it we enter a bear market. There' hasn't been a single fakeout or exception to this (yet), and even if we go down just one notch to the weekly chart we have multiple fakeouts with the same scenario. So - to me, it's a strong and viable pattern to judge bear vs. bull.
Per this chart, what we are in right now is the first bull market pull-back to the monthly 10 SMA, just like we had in early 2016 after the first bullish explosion/run-up. In that time (2016), we only ever got to within about 8% of the 10 SMA (our low last month at 7690 got us to within about 7%). Also notable is that the RSI and Stochastic are at the same exact point that they were back in early 2016 in that first big pullback to the monthly 10 SMA. That pullback was about 19% of the size of the upward move. The current pullback is about 16% of the size of the upward move.
We have very bearish things going on, of course: we've completed broken the weekly 21 EMA, with volume, and we have the death cross (neither of which occurred in any of the previous bull markets). BUT - given the current monthly chart with the 10 SMA, I am still slightly more inclined to be bullish and to see this area as a potentially huge buying opportunity.
That said, if this month's candle closes underneath the 10 SMA, not only will we be entering a new bear market but we will be entering a new bear market having not made a macro higher high but a macro lower low, which would put us in "unprecedented" territory and mostly likely mean we are headed also to a macro lower low (ie, sub 3K) and Bitcoin will, for the first time ever, actually be losing value.
In other words, closing this month's candle under the 10 SMA would pretty much be the most bearish thing in Bitcoin history. However, closing above it and especially having a green month would mean we are essentially doing bull-market business as usual and gearing up for our next big run and most likely a new higher high, and this will have turned out to be a massive bear trap.
相關想法
Trading the monthly also forces me to have patience, not overtrade, and not trade based on emotion.