#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bears broke the bull trend line for good and market is now fighting for 56000. Bulls want to get back above 60000 to make this a bear trap and keep the trading range alive. Bears want to keep it below 59000 and the bull trend line. Odds favor sideways movement 56000-59000 until the next breakout and my money is on the bear side for 50000 and ultimately 40000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
"What could happen next for bitcoin? Market has not touched the daily 20ema for more than two weeks. The upper bear trend line will get hit soon, where I expect another rejection at that price level above 61700, like the previous 5 days. The breakout below the previous bear wedge was strong enough that this is a new trend and we are currently forming the channel with this pullback. Once market makes a new low, we know where to draw the channel lines. Odds heavily favor the bears to retest below 59000 and testing the bull trend line from 2023-10."
comment: Bear trend in full swing and we have a good looking channel down. My lower targets are at least 50000 over the next 1-3 weeks and probably closing the bull gap to 47000. Even if you don’t think it’s not a bear trend and it will trade back up again, buying anything other than for a scalp before the bear channel is broken and market is trading above the daily 20ema again, is suicide for your account.
current market cycle: Bear trend since we made new lows below 56000. If bulls do a huge reversal here and get back above 62000, I am wrong and this could have been a lower low inside the big trading range 50000-74000.
key levels: 50000-60000
bull case: Got not much for you here. Bear trend in full force and officially a bear market since it dropped 27% from the highs. The best bulls can hope for is sideways and stopping the lower lows above 53500.
Invalidation is below 50000.
bear case: Bears are in full control of the market but they are not producing climactic sell offs, which increases the odds that the bear trend continues in orderly fashion. The bear trend line held since early June and W5 could bring us down to 47000ish or lower. Most likely bears want to wait for the 1h 20ema to come closer again before another leg down. It’s less likely but not impossible, that the bear trend accelerated last week and we will trade down faster in a tighter channel. Measured move from last weeks bear leg would lead to 43000 and the 50% pb for the whole bull trend since 2023-10 is 45000. Some can argue it’s 50000 and that is a reasonable take as well. I do think the breakout price from the 2023-01 high at 49000 will be hit over the next 3-6 months.
Invalidation is above 62000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 62000 and now we are at 57000. I gave you the 57000 area many weeks ago, hope you made some.
short term: Bearish but pull backs around the 57000 price are expected. Market could go sideways until the daily ema comes closer. Currently at 61000.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
current swing trade: Want to see more sideways to up trading between 53000 - 59000 first before thinking about new shorts.
chart update: Replace previous two legged moves with the bearish 5 wave series but other than that, the chart was drawn 5 weeks ago and pretty fn perfect so far.
tl;dr
Bears broke the bull trend line for good and market is now fighting for 56000. Bulls want to get back above 60000 to make this a bear trap and keep the trading range alive. Bears want to keep it below 59000 and the bull trend line. Odds favor sideways movement 56000-59000 until the next breakout and my money is on the bear side for 50000 and ultimately 40000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
"What could happen next for bitcoin? Market has not touched the daily 20ema for more than two weeks. The upper bear trend line will get hit soon, where I expect another rejection at that price level above 61700, like the previous 5 days. The breakout below the previous bear wedge was strong enough that this is a new trend and we are currently forming the channel with this pullback. Once market makes a new low, we know where to draw the channel lines. Odds heavily favor the bears to retest below 59000 and testing the bull trend line from 2023-10."
comment: Bear trend in full swing and we have a good looking channel down. My lower targets are at least 50000 over the next 1-3 weeks and probably closing the bull gap to 47000. Even if you don’t think it’s not a bear trend and it will trade back up again, buying anything other than for a scalp before the bear channel is broken and market is trading above the daily 20ema again, is suicide for your account.
current market cycle: Bear trend since we made new lows below 56000. If bulls do a huge reversal here and get back above 62000, I am wrong and this could have been a lower low inside the big trading range 50000-74000.
key levels: 50000-60000
bull case: Got not much for you here. Bear trend in full force and officially a bear market since it dropped 27% from the highs. The best bulls can hope for is sideways and stopping the lower lows above 53500.
Invalidation is below 50000.
bear case: Bears are in full control of the market but they are not producing climactic sell offs, which increases the odds that the bear trend continues in orderly fashion. The bear trend line held since early June and W5 could bring us down to 47000ish or lower. Most likely bears want to wait for the 1h 20ema to come closer again before another leg down. It’s less likely but not impossible, that the bear trend accelerated last week and we will trade down faster in a tighter channel. Measured move from last weeks bear leg would lead to 43000 and the 50% pb for the whole bull trend since 2023-10 is 45000. Some can argue it’s 50000 and that is a reasonable take as well. I do think the breakout price from the 2023-01 high at 49000 will be hit over the next 3-6 months.
Invalidation is above 62000.
outlook last week:
“short term: More sideways to down movement expected (not much down, max 79.7ish) before bulls try the third leg up. Can’t be anything but bullish looking at this chart until bears build bigger selling pressure.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 62000 and now we are at 57000. I gave you the 57000 area many weeks ago, hope you made some.
short term: Bearish but pull backs around the 57000 price are expected. Market could go sideways until the daily ema comes closer. Currently at 61000.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
current swing trade: Want to see more sideways to up trading between 53000 - 59000 first before thinking about new shorts.
chart update: Replace previous two legged moves with the bearish 5 wave series but other than that, the chart was drawn 5 weeks ago and pretty fn perfect so far.
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