BTCUSD - Monday will Tell

已更新

Hi Everyone

My outlook on the market currently

I might be mixing up my terminology here and there, I tend to think faster than I can speak so: In summary, when the market is over bullish you could find over-leveraged positions based on euphoria. These leveraged long positions will be liquidated by (whales) placing massive sell orders, driving the price to just underneath the support. Then, when most positions are liquidated, (whales) buy back in at a lower price and drive the market up again. At this point, there is usually a bearish sentiment (think fear and greed index) and there is possibly over leveraged short positions which again, get liquidated. The last part is not always included, but it is possible if the game play is extended (not just a wick).

Therefore, quick and easy money is being made by the following coordinated process:
- Selling high
- Thereby liquidating leveraged longs
- Buying back lower
- Thereby liquidating leveraged shorts (this step depends on timeframe in which above takes place)

The problem with predicting this situation, is the timeframe in which the above happens. In the video, I discuss a quick wick only considering liquidating longs but it could also be a mini-cycle lasting weeks. It does not always happen in this order; you could get a short squeeze during a bear market SOLELY aimed at taking out leveraged shorts (think GME or think price increase just to reach double top, bear market continues).

And at the end, everyone lost except the coordinated whale pools. This could include banks, market makers, insurance companies, governments, politicians (mind you Hillary said something about Bitcoin today actually).

NOW. How could you safeguard yourself against such a harsh play? Here's my take:
- NO LEVERAGE. EVER.
- Don't FOMO buy into coins that rally. EVER.
- Buy when the price consolidates or don't buy at all.
- DON'T DAY TRADE
- And probably the most important of all: if you buy, buy with spare money. Money that you wont EVER need. This way, shakeouts and liquidations won't affect you and you can simply hold and sleep easy until you are in profit.

This is my take.
Don't let markets ruin your life and your happiness.
Another update Monday.

Best Regards
Ev

註釋

At some points I say "short squeeze" when I meant liquidating over leveraged positions which ever direction. It was a looooong week and I'm happy it's Friday!

註釋

Update available on above.