I smell a BULL TRAP.

I felt uncomfortable when the candles move up and down in square wave in matter of minutes on H1 chart as if nobody is trading it.
This movement shouldn't appear in a bullish market.

Also, the volume for each daily candles are too low compare to panic selling during 2018-03-06 - 2018-03-17 and 2018-03-25 - 2018-04-01.
The volume for each candle should be around 60K to 100K, but there's only 20K - 40K.
The rally is up too much, too fast, too easy.

I compare a slope for this rally among other uptrends.
The closest one that I can find was during 2017-08-03 to 2017-08-19.
They have higher volume than the false rally.

I smell a BULL TRAP. A big one.

I think it will land around 7500 back to the old long term support.
With the red line resistance become support, we will have 2 fold up trend, and the real battle will begin.

For those who buy the dips before 12th April (the big bounce). You are still safe (almost).
Just don't panic sell it and cause price to go lower :wink :wink.

For now, leave it alone don't do anything irrational.
Always trade with the trend, not counter it.
If you're still on the rally. Put your stop loss ready. You can ride it for a while, but be cautious.

評論:

If big whales are jumping in during this time.
This idea may be falsified.

評論:

Will there be anyone willing to buy huge amount of bitcoin and pull us out of this misery ? :P

評論:

Forget about slope correlation that I mentioned here.
I'm getting sleepy when I wrote the idea.