BTC, short term jump in a longer cycle?
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TLDR: I don't know what BTC is doing, but log curves fit everything nicely.
July-August 2019: A dual peak for BTC!? I did sell my BTC in July, yes. Should I have? I have no idea. I did not expect the sudden drop that occurred in November 2018, and it shook my confidence to predict BTC a lot. I was also not expecting BTC to remain close to
12K for so long currently.
I went back to the picture, and the only thing I can say about Bitcoin with absolute confidence is that when looking at the price and volume on a log scale, the peak values each cycle fit very nicely on a logarithmic curve.
BTC also particularly likes to jump to 70-80% of it's value about halfway to two thirds of the way through a cycle, and then drop again.
As such, my current theory is that we are currently halfway to two thirds through a two year trend (or a one-year long term bull market).
If this is the case, then we might expect BTC to go up to 16K over the next couple months. But we could also expect BTC to drop anywhere between 10-50% over the next 6-9 months.
Personally I'm a little concerned that Bitcoin is going to drop suddenly sometime over the next 6 months, or simply plateau. If it reaches 16K that's a nice 50% increase yes. But I feel I can more confidently get a 50% increase from a few other cryptocurrencies in that time. For the time being I plan to wait this out and invest in some other cryptos. If BTC meets back up with my nice green parabolic curve without dropping straight past it, that's when I'll be much more confident to invest and hopefully ride a wave towards 40K!
July-August 2019: A dual peak for BTC!? I did sell my BTC in July, yes. Should I have? I have no idea. I did not expect the sudden drop that occurred in November 2018, and it shook my confidence to predict BTC a lot. I was also not expecting BTC to remain close to
12K for so long currently. I went back to the picture, and the only thing I can say about Bitcoin with absolute confidence is that when looking at the price and volume on a log scale, the peak values each cycle fit very nicely on a logarithmic curve.
BTC also particularly likes to jump to 70-80% of it's value about halfway to two thirds of the way through a cycle, and then drop again.
As such, my current theory is that we are currently halfway to two thirds through a two year trend (or a one-year long term bull market).
If this is the case, then we might expect BTC to go up to 16K over the next couple months. But we could also expect BTC to drop anywhere between 10-50% over the next 6-9 months.
Personally I'm a little concerned that Bitcoin is going to drop suddenly sometime over the next 6 months, or simply plateau. If it reaches 16K that's a nice 50% increase yes. But I feel I can more confidently get a 50% increase from a few other cryptocurrencies in that time. For the time being I plan to wait this out and invest in some other cryptos. If BTC meets back up with my nice green parabolic curve without dropping straight past it, that's when I'll be much more confident to invest and hopefully ride a wave towards 40K!
註釋
Mild edit: Did I say we could be in a "one year long term bull market"? I meant we are very possibly at the START of a 12-18 month long term bull market sorry! I try not to spend too much time writing at the cost of my proof reading sorry ;)
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