Can Bitcoin hit 9000 this year? Gold shows the way.

2019年2月16日

This analysis brings to center stage Bitcoin and the asset mostly linked with, Gold. On this chart, Bitcoin (the digital Gold) shows a quite similar behavioral pattern with Gold's bottom period of the 80s/ 90s bear cycle.

What stands out is this identical +33.50% bounce on Gold and the subsequent Double Top followed by a slow decline before the major lift off. Bitcoin is issuing the very same pattern meaning that market/ investor psychology is identical on this stage of its cycle.

This is a cyclical buy signal for Bitcoin.

Two important elements to point out here.

First, the different time frames (BTC on 1D/ Gold on 1W). This shouldn't affect the conclusions derived as Bitcoin's life span is far shorter than Gold which has been used as a store of value for centuries. Moreover Bitcoin has been moving at a much faster pace since its invention, so the market psychology, dynamics etc have adapted to a much shorter time frame.

Second, Gold strong lift-off was backed by the launch of its ETF in 2003. We may not be far away from a similar situation on Bitcoin.

We see first hand how the market bias are very interlinked. Gold gave investors many buy signals throughout that bear cycle, just as Bitcoin is currently giving. Investors who failed to buy Gold's buy signals during the late 90s have missed a great opportunity.

Would you ignore the very same buy signals on Bitcoin? Your opinion and comments on this are more than welcome.