Bitcoin: The Bottom of the Bear Market

2022年12月11日

This isn't exactly a new idea, but an updated visualisation of what I think the bitcoin price will do in the next three years.

It's been over a year since the peak at $69,000 and we're at the bottom of the power law corridor. It's reasonable to think that the bottom is in, or that we are close to the bottom, but that doesn't mean we are going straight to the moon immediately. After the last two bear markets, the price retraced back to between the 0,786 and 0,618 fibonaccci levels, which is also where the last two halvings happened. If that happens again it means the price will be between $40,000 and $50,000 on the next halving (assuming we don't go much lower than $15,000). The next halving is expected to be around april 2024. After that we can expect the next bull run to begin. Where the peak will be is anyone's guess, but I think it will be somewhere between $100,000 and $500,000.

It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be $420,000 just for the meme.

2023年1月22日

註釋

So far, so good.

2023年3月21日

註釋

It's 100 days later, and the price is doing pretty much the same thing as it did in 2019. 2019 went way higher than 2015, maybe 2023 will go way higher than 2019?

2023年12月5日

註釋

The weekly just closed above the 0.618 fibonacci. In the last two cycles it went straight to 0.786 after closing above 0.618, which is around $50,000. There's a good chance we see a 30-40% pullback from these levels, which would be between $25-35,000.

1月9日

註釋

With all the ETF-stuff happening this week and the price getting closer to the 0.786 ($50,000), it seems like the perfect time for a local top and a massive pullback. I think lower 30's is a reasonable target. The price will probably wick above $50,000 first though.

9月18日

註釋

We're right in line with the previous two cycles again.