What do I always tell you guys?
You do not want a market to go straight up without pullbacks. There is no support that gets built. There are no buyers to protect their position. So once profit taking begins, there's a panic to sell and book profits for anyone that was long from the day of the short squeeze. They see their profits evaporating and can't take it so they sell like mad. That's why you get a huge move down like this. And thats why it was really easy for professional traders to short above $9500.
This is the 6th time we've had a nasty sell off after a run up with no pullbacks. This is great for trading but bad for investors and it will shake up the market, making it that much more difficult to climb up. This is part of the reason I'm concerned that bitcoin is not likely to make its next big run. These types of moves scare investors. They sell and never come back. Won't be enough buyers to step in just yet.
Let's Talk about Short Term
We dropped $1700 in 6 days. The 4 hour is just a block of red candles hit a TD9 signal overnight. RSI is was below 20 which has only happened a few times with bitcoin in the past. It hit the 50% fib of this entire wave up. So anyone with any kind of trading experience was buying the last 24 hours. Most of the altcoins are doing well now.
Usually we go up on weekends and this type of price action results an aggressive move up. Possibly to that blue line, but I have a feeling it will go higher.
This entire time, I've been looking for a resumption of the downtrend but this was way too aggressive of a move down, so covered shorts and started working on longs and I'll stay long for at least a few days unless we retrace 78% of this move up from $8200.
There is still a chance we bounce slightly then go hit the 61.8% at $7800, but it was so low so fast that I find that unlikely. If it does, then I'd be a buyer down there too.
At some point I'll look to reshort but not until RSI resets and we recover a decent % of this move up, I'll be patient. Bitcoin can still end up at $9500. I won't be eager to short unless I see real weakness set in.
So to clarify, I'm looking for a move up then roll over to a fairly slow descending move down. Not another big crash. But I am prepared to look for this to be a new wave of a bull market. If its happening, now is the time. A strong impulsive move up that starts a wave 3 and I will have to consider the bullish scenario. Breaking $10k would get me to neutral and getting past $12k would likely flip me to a long term bull.
You do not want a market to go straight up without pullbacks. There is no support that gets built. There are no buyers to protect their position. So once profit taking begins, there's a panic to sell and book profits for anyone that was long from the day of the short squeeze. They see their profits evaporating and can't take it so they sell like mad. That's why you get a huge move down like this. And thats why it was really easy for professional traders to short above $9500.
This is the 6th time we've had a nasty sell off after a run up with no pullbacks. This is great for trading but bad for investors and it will shake up the market, making it that much more difficult to climb up. This is part of the reason I'm concerned that bitcoin is not likely to make its next big run. These types of moves scare investors. They sell and never come back. Won't be enough buyers to step in just yet.
Let's Talk about Short Term
We dropped $1700 in 6 days. The 4 hour is just a block of red candles hit a TD9 signal overnight. RSI is was below 20 which has only happened a few times with bitcoin in the past. It hit the 50% fib of this entire wave up. So anyone with any kind of trading experience was buying the last 24 hours. Most of the altcoins are doing well now.
Usually we go up on weekends and this type of price action results an aggressive move up. Possibly to that blue line, but I have a feeling it will go higher.
This entire time, I've been looking for a resumption of the downtrend but this was way too aggressive of a move down, so covered shorts and started working on longs and I'll stay long for at least a few days unless we retrace 78% of this move up from $8200.
There is still a chance we bounce slightly then go hit the 61.8% at $7800, but it was so low so fast that I find that unlikely. If it does, then I'd be a buyer down there too.
At some point I'll look to reshort but not until RSI resets and we recover a decent % of this move up, I'll be patient. Bitcoin can still end up at $9500. I won't be eager to short unless I see real weakness set in.
So to clarify, I'm looking for a move up then roll over to a fairly slow descending move down. Not another big crash. But I am prepared to look for this to be a new wave of a bull market. If its happening, now is the time. A strong impulsive move up that starts a wave 3 and I will have to consider the bullish scenario. Breaking $10k would get me to neutral and getting past $12k would likely flip me to a long term bull.
評論:
Eventually that triangle broke up but I'm still not convinced this is the turn for a bullish run.
That green line is good resistance and also the 4 hour high zone. Usually when you are this oversold, you want to see a break higher with a bit more volume and authority. Instead its struggling and has potential to form a wedge.
So I start a short, but keeping it small. I will cover at $8900 no matter what but I would cover if I saw a high volume spike up as that would tell me that shorts are covering and sell pressure is subsiding.
Unless I see better price action, I'll wait until I see what happens on Monday or Tuesday before going long.
Eventually that triangle broke up but I'm still not convinced this is the turn for a bullish run.
That green line is good resistance and also the 4 hour high zone. Usually when you are this oversold, you want to see a break higher with a bit more volume and authority. Instead its struggling and has potential to form a wedge.
So I start a short, but keeping it small. I will cover at $8900 no matter what but I would cover if I saw a high volume spike up as that would tell me that shorts are covering and sell pressure is subsiding.
Unless I see better price action, I'll wait until I see what happens on Monday or Tuesday before going long.
評論:
I'm pushing my stop up to $9020 after taking a close look. I'll add as we go higher. This is an excellent risk to reward for a few reasons.
1. Wave fibs between $8800-$9000
2. Last weeks low at $8800
3. Two major areas of resistance
4. Neckline of the HS breakdown
5. Still 2 days left on the TD 9 count
6. Still 20+ days for a cycle low
Now, we can certainly get above $9k and maybe with Consensus tomorrow we turn fully bullish. Thats fine, but the risk reward here is a good trade, so I'll take short and if I'm stopped out I'll just get to the sidelines and re-evaluate.
I'm pushing my stop up to $9020 after taking a close look. I'll add as we go higher. This is an excellent risk to reward for a few reasons.
1. Wave fibs between $8800-$9000
2. Last weeks low at $8800
3. Two major areas of resistance
4. Neckline of the HS breakdown
5. Still 2 days left on the TD 9 count
6. Still 20+ days for a cycle low
Now, we can certainly get above $9k and maybe with Consensus tomorrow we turn fully bullish. Thats fine, but the risk reward here is a good trade, so I'll take short and if I'm stopped out I'll just get to the sidelines and re-evaluate.
評論:
I thought there was a reasonable chance it would start a new but with a bearish channel and big support area, this was just a set up for smart money to get short.
I'm in a good short position and looking or a target of a lower low the next 24 hours between $7800 and $8100 and then I'll look add longs.
I thought there was a reasonable chance it would start a new but with a bearish channel and big support area, this was just a set up for smart money to get short.
I'm in a good short position and looking or a target of a lower low the next 24 hours between $7800 and $8100 and then I'll look add longs.
評論:
Monster bullish move with volume. This stopped me out. Luckily I had taken some profit and moved my stop to break even as price really exploded.
Now, we try to evaluate the move and figure out if its a short squeeze that will die in the range or if it has what it takes to start a new bull trend.
It is tough to get positions here because the move can run away from us. My first partial buy is $8800. That would at least give us higher highs and clearly break the daily and 4hr highs. Then I'd look to add if we see a bull flag form. After that I'll try to add on any .328 pullbacks of this wave.
Its still early but so far this has the type of volume I want to see for a reversal.
The biggest risk as that this was just a momentary short term squeeze that will only go the top of the range before it comes back down.
Monster bullish move with volume. This stopped me out. Luckily I had taken some profit and moved my stop to break even as price really exploded.
Now, we try to evaluate the move and figure out if its a short squeeze that will die in the range or if it has what it takes to start a new bull trend.
It is tough to get positions here because the move can run away from us. My first partial buy is $8800. That would at least give us higher highs and clearly break the daily and 4hr highs. Then I'd look to add if we see a bull flag form. After that I'll try to add on any .328 pullbacks of this wave.
Its still early but so far this has the type of volume I want to see for a reversal.
The biggest risk as that this was just a momentary short term squeeze that will only go the top of the range before it comes back down.
評論:
www.tradingview.com/chart/J4oDD6KO/
Bitcoin made it to a major resistance area. I went short up here again looking for one more wave down, but if bitcoin can consolidate inside of this ascending triangle i will cover and would expect it to potentially test highs.
Shorting is a good risk reward here because there is a lot of resistance. Breaking up would be a sign of strength and I may consider buying on a breakout if I get the right set up.
Bitcoin made it to a major resistance area. I went short up here again looking for one more wave down, but if bitcoin can consolidate inside of this ascending triangle i will cover and would expect it to potentially test highs.
Shorting is a good risk reward here because there is a lot of resistance. Breaking up would be a sign of strength and I may consider buying on a breakout if I get the right set up.
評論:
評論:
And the triangle broke down. I'll continue to carry my short as its getting close to breaking the bear flag. Overly price action looks corrective so the probability of going lower is increased. risk of $7800 is fairly high. And if that falls, then it could go down to $7300 fairly quickly as there is no support near the short squeeze.
The bulls need to keep this area and get us back near $8800 so it can work on making a break up past resistance.
And the triangle broke down. I'll continue to carry my short as its getting close to breaking the bear flag. Overly price action looks corrective so the probability of going lower is increased. risk of $7800 is fairly high. And if that falls, then it could go down to $7300 fairly quickly as there is no support near the short squeeze.
The bulls need to keep this area and get us back near $8800 so it can work on making a break up past resistance.
評論:
Ascending triangle breakdown, bear flag breakdown, daily bar break. And a head and shoulders. So pick your bearish sign. Being down at $8300 for a 3rd time, it will be tough for resistance to hold.
There will be some mild fib support at $7800-$8000 but its not really that strong as we really didn't spend much time in that area, so no buyers there to protect price. This could lead to a touch of the triangle at $7000 so be careful out there.
Ascending triangle breakdown, bear flag breakdown, daily bar break. And a head and shoulders. So pick your bearish sign. Being down at $8300 for a 3rd time, it will be tough for resistance to hold.
There will be some mild fib support at $7800-$8000 but its not really that strong as we really didn't spend much time in that area, so no buyers there to protect price. This could lead to a touch of the triangle at $7000 so be careful out there.
評論:
Even though I'm bearish and short, I'm going to cover my short soon and buy at the 618 fib area. We have a descending wedge, oversold conditions and the risk vs. reward is excellent. We may get a wedge overthrow and that type of flush would be ideal for me to flip.
Will I hold the long if I get filled? Not sure yet, but quite possible if I see strong impulsive buying. Otherwise, I may just cover and move re-short.
Even though I'm bearish and short, I'm going to cover my short soon and buy at the 618 fib area. We have a descending wedge, oversold conditions and the risk vs. reward is excellent. We may get a wedge overthrow and that type of flush would be ideal for me to flip.
Will I hold the long if I get filled? Not sure yet, but quite possible if I see strong impulsive buying. Otherwise, I may just cover and move re-short.
評論:
I'm flat now. I covered part of the short and held the rest most of the day but this chop today is hard to read so I'm not long or short. Going to watch and see what happens tomorrow.
評論:
I covered all of my short and went long. I only had part of my orders filled. I will buy more if we go lower or break that smaller wedge then wait to see what price action tells me.
I'm really not confident this will hold but risk reward to go long here is worth it. Even if its just a bounce to $8500-$9500.
I covered all of my short and went long. I only had part of my orders filled. I will buy more if we go lower or break that smaller wedge then wait to see what price action tells me.
I'm really not confident this will hold but risk reward to go long here is worth it. Even if its just a bounce to $8500-$9500.
With 3 days left on the TD signal and a weak bounce, it looks like bitcoin could be forming a triangle. I'm prepared for prices to eventually make it down to the .618 around $7800. its so oversold,so it will eventually make a move back up, but momentum downard is strong right now.