Its looking more like BTCUSD will bounce on FOMC meeting day

2022年5月4日

BTCUSD has double bottomed at $37500 level of the macro bear flag channel. 4hr RSI has a clear bullish divergence. The nasdaq has a bullish divergence with a Bullish bottom candle. As much i am bearish on bitcoin i think we will see a relief pump in the next week or two to around $44000 before seeing 28k and lower prices.

We are at extreme fear on Fear and greed index for BTCUSD which is usually a good buying opportunity. Seems many retail and influencers are now bearish, so good time to countertrade these people who are wrong most of the time. This market sure makes the fool out of the most people.

In the event my thesis is invalidated if price falls below 37k this week that would likely trigger a fast down move to low 30ks.

2022年5月4日

註釋

I think the FED were quite clear that 50 basis point would be very likely for this FOMC meeting. The ECB and Japan still have not raise rates yet and letting the dollar increase dominance.So i don't think the FED is in any rush to raise rates faster than it has too
The main reason the FED is raising rates in the first place is to try kill inflation as it is out of control not just in the US but globally. But if the FED raises rates too fast it will very likely cause an economic meltdown. I think the FED will take the middle cautious ground of 0.5% as they have already planned/stated. So they dont shock the markets even more tomorrow. Just my thoughts

i am just an idiot, who is guessing. anything can happen. expect the unexpected.