GOT TRUMP.D

已更新

All my shorts are gone, so I'm sitting here naked, looking for solutions.

I present an idea about BTC imminent ATH and the next 6 months, based on my limited TA knowledge.
I propose the following:
- BTC will reach ATH and the timing of it will coincide with Trumps' speech at crypto conference
- it will then enter a short corrective phase, lasting until mid august the latest
- three scenarious for after:
a) breakout into 80k range by mid September, followed by a deeper correction that will even out by elections
b) we breakdown back into 60k-50k
c) we range until election

I think most likely scenario out of the 3 is c), unless we get some catalyst that can trigger a rally in August.
Least likely would be b), because the latest price action annulled most of the bear case in the mid term. However, Mt.Gox is still looming upon us.

No matter how we get to the election day, what happens after will chart the future of crypto and the world.
If Trump follows through, ends the wars and supports crypto, we could see a rally above 100k by the end of the year or January.
If not... who knows. The deep end in crypto is 0. So plan accordingly.

註釋

Why ATH next week?
FIBS
Price broke the high of the previous downtrend and strongly so.
It ignored the .76 and 86. which are common and strong reversal levels and is now testing 1.27 is usually a continuation level.
There are trading strategies that play of this level, because the price can advance higher to 1.61 or even 2.2 extension.
HOWEVER
Since we broke the previous structure, we must now analyze the new trend to the next larger structure if there is one.
And there is, a downtrend from 72000 to 53500. That puts the current price exactly at .76 fib which can suggest a reversal.
A reversal from this point would take us back to low 60k.

註釋

I can't upload snapshots for whatever reason, on any platform.

What further supports the bullish thesis is:
- double bottom and break above the previous trendline
- after the second bottom the price has advanced in form of E. waves and we are now at the bottom of wave 5, which is usually the most impulsive
- on 19.7.2024 at closing hour of NYSE a pattern appeared on the chart which can be interpreted as a short squeeze. Since it happened at the end of the day, there is a high chance that most traders couldn't exit their shorts and will do so ASAP next week. BTC was being heavily shorted in the last two weeks, so we can expect that the already strong price momentum will be amplified by short liquidations next week, Trumps speech at the crypto conference, which in turn will bring in even more hype

If these assumptions are confirmed and my fib analysis is correct, then we could see new ATH by the end of the week, latest on Sunday or Monday.

註釋

Where can it fail?
- it can fail this coming Monday, if the price gets strong rejection from .76
- it can struggle to overcome previous ATH, since there is a lot of sell orders around that price and is then rejected

If the upward move fails in the coming week, we can expect for price to continue ranging between 70k and 60k

註釋

Where should I enter the trade?

Now is the time, or wait until Monday or limit order at 66k.
SL 64000
TP1 70000
TP2 73000
TP3 77000

Kripl