Bitcoin Bear Targets in case Ukraine x Russia tensions rise

2022年2月24日

Until the rising of the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, I was bullish about Bitcoin because of the fundamentals and on chain analysis. Now that my hopes on a diplomatic solution fades as war is in fact happening, my vision tends to change to a more bearish scenario. So I made a very simple analysis based on price levels and volume and the head and shoulders figure that was upsetting me and a lot of people on the market.

2022年7月7日

交易結束：目標達成

Four and a half months later, the prices are exactely on the target mentioned on the video, having droped briefly below it, to the 18.000 range.
Back to the fundamentalist analises, we have two factors that may influence to the bearish side, forcing prices to lose the 20k support:
1) War in Ukraine that is still taking place, unfortunately.
2) Inflation control attempts by the FED, rising interest rate tax.
To the bullish side, I'd highlight these factors:
1) Maybe both bearish factors (Ukraine and inflation) could have already been absorbed by the market dynamics.
2) Fear diminishes, as weak hands are already flushed out of the market.
3) The BTC as an inflation hedge narrative gains force, since the 20k level could be understood by the market as a cheap price.
I'll soon make a new technical analysis considering targets to both bearish and bullish sides.