As the father of all crypto-assets, I think it's relevant to analyze bitcoin on Father's Day. I wanted to get a perspective of where we are in the cycle and I think it's pretty clear from this view. I was at work and I was playing with moving averages a little to get a clearer picture and ended up with the 17 and 47 which I do not believe are that common (compared to 20 and 50). I think these averages will provide higher slightly higher returns and reduce noise/false breakouts. The last one I used is the 200 W simple MA which I think is a must-have when we're talking about finding cycle lows.
2018:
Weekly MACD negative
Weekly RSI neutral after returning from a major oversold area
Price below the weekly 17 MA and above the weekly 47 MA
Now:
Weekly MACD negative
Weekly RSI neutral after returning from a major oversold area
Price below the weekly 17 MA and above the weekly 47 MA
I am definitely bullish long-term on all crypto-assets but I do think we still have a ways to go after this short consolidation area. The next price target is around 22,000 based on the 0.618 fib retracement of the cycle. I'm not going to try to predict where it will slow down or retrace to until it hits that weekly 200 MA but there is money to be made by buying at these areas. For example if it plummets to 22 then pulls back to 31 to retest that 47 MA, even though it might not be the bottom that is a 40% increase within a week or two which would be an exceptional return. Let me know what you all think about the analysis and if you agree about the current trend.
I should clarify that the current position isn't a great short entry based on these indicators, but I am out of the market currently and am waiting for a buy.
2018:
Weekly MACD negative
Weekly RSI neutral after returning from a major oversold area
Price below the weekly 17 MA and above the weekly 47 MA
Now:
Weekly MACD negative
Weekly RSI neutral after returning from a major oversold area
Price below the weekly 17 MA and above the weekly 47 MA
I am definitely bullish long-term on all crypto-assets but I do think we still have a ways to go after this short consolidation area. The next price target is around 22,000 based on the 0.618 fib retracement of the cycle. I'm not going to try to predict where it will slow down or retrace to until it hits that weekly 200 MA but there is money to be made by buying at these areas. For example if it plummets to 22 then pulls back to 31 to retest that 47 MA, even though it might not be the bottom that is a 40% increase within a week or two which would be an exceptional return. Let me know what you all think about the analysis and if you agree about the current trend.
I should clarify that the current position isn't a great short entry based on these indicators, but I am out of the market currently and am waiting for a buy.
評論:
Looks like that was a good short entry after all lol