Same as my previous ideas, just added a few things to the chart. (Lines between high and low of each cycle are exact same angle and 83% price drop. This time around 83% drop at same angle would go to $12k in November.)
Just an idea on the seemingly regular cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle. I am basing my strategy on this. Short BTC to November rebalancing at support and resistance levels. When BTC hits the 200 week/50 month MA, and the RSI 30 weekly/44.5 monthly, switch long on BTC and long altcoins there as well, entering small position at first, because drop to $12 is possible, ready to average down. Then just regular rebalancing at support and resistance levels into Oct. 2025.
I've seen arguments that the BTC cycle is lengthening and there is another major run coming this year with blow off top, but I don't buy it.
1) The RSI has not bottomed out yet. Last two cycles, it bottomed 12 months after the cycle high.
2) There really isn't going to be a sudden super massive flood of new buyers entering the crypto market again so soon after the last one, and that's necessary to create a major run.
3) The BTC halving cycle, which the price cycle is based on, has not lengthened.
4) The price cycle, shown as a consistent cadence, rather than lengthening, matches up with highs and lows of the past few cycles with pretty high precision.
5) BTC has not revisited the 200 week/50 month ma. Last two cycles, did so 12 months after cycle high.
Just an idea on the seemingly regular cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle. I am basing my strategy on this. Short BTC to November rebalancing at support and resistance levels. When BTC hits the 200 week/50 month MA, and the RSI 30 weekly/44.5 monthly, switch long on BTC and long altcoins there as well, entering small position at first, because drop to $12 is possible, ready to average down. Then just regular rebalancing at support and resistance levels into Oct. 2025.
I've seen arguments that the BTC cycle is lengthening and there is another major run coming this year with blow off top, but I don't buy it.
1) The RSI has not bottomed out yet. Last two cycles, it bottomed 12 months after the cycle high.
2) There really isn't going to be a sudden super massive flood of new buyers entering the crypto market again so soon after the last one, and that's necessary to create a major run.
3) The BTC halving cycle, which the price cycle is based on, has not lengthened.
4) The price cycle, shown as a consistent cadence, rather than lengthening, matches up with highs and lows of the past few cycles with pretty high precision.
5) BTC has not revisited the 200 week/50 month ma. Last two cycles, did so 12 months after cycle high.
