Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000, Rally or Reverse?
Bitcoin remains steady above the $100,000 mark, awaiting the impacts of evolving market dynamics and new SEC regulations. It is currently trading within an expanding consolidation pattern, aligning with a long-term trendline connecting the highs of 2021. This formation presents two potential outcomes:
1. Continuation of the Rally:
A decisive close above $112,000 would signal further upward momentum. Key levels to watch are $128,000 and $147,000, which align with the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions, calculated from the September 2023 low ($25,000), March 2024 high ($73,800), and August 2024 low ($49,500).
2. Reversal Risk:
Failure to break above $112,000 could form a double-top pattern, potentially leading to a reversal. A break below $84,000 could indicate further downside, with possible moves toward $70,000, $62,000, and $50,000.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
From an Elliott wave standpoint, Bitcoin has completed five clear waves, but an extension of the fifth wave remains a possibility if the $112,000 level is breached. If not, the Fibonacci retracement tool between the 2022 low and 2025 high can provide insights into potential corrective moves.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
1. Continuation of the Rally:
A decisive close above $112,000 would signal further upward momentum. Key levels to watch are $128,000 and $147,000, which align with the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions, calculated from the September 2023 low ($25,000), March 2024 high ($73,800), and August 2024 low ($49,500).
2. Reversal Risk:
Failure to break above $112,000 could form a double-top pattern, potentially leading to a reversal. A break below $84,000 could indicate further downside, with possible moves toward $70,000, $62,000, and $50,000.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
From an Elliott wave standpoint, Bitcoin has completed five clear waves, but an extension of the fifth wave remains a possibility if the $112,000 level is breached. If not, the Fibonacci retracement tool between the 2022 low and 2025 high can provide insights into potential corrective moves.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
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