I posted several ideas in a bullish scenario for the short term.
However, another reading is also possible.
I mean "bearish" here as falling short of the previous high, i.e. 21800, or failure to break the channel (item No. 4 below).
Let's check the bearish elements.
1. 25 EMA on 4H timeframe (gray). Normally this is a very strong resistance. For the middle term, the price wouldn't go up unless 25 EMA is golden-crossed by lower-period EMAs, not only by the close. For the short term? If the price deviated more from 25 EMA, we could expect convergence to it that could be a surge. However, the price is already close to 25 EMA.
2. Oscillators' behavior. They look as if the chart has been moving very bullish, which is what it is not, at least for now. Stochastics is on the ceiling for a considerable period. RSI (blue) is almost touching a red upper band. OBV(red/green) is blocked by its red trendline (which disappears when it's broken).
3. Parallel channel with steep inclination (red). Its upper edge should challenge around 21800-21900.
4. Parallel channel with mild inclination (bage). It may be forming a flag, instead of a double or triple bottom. With preceding steep decline, such a flag would be a bearish one.
However, another reading is also possible.
I mean "bearish" here as falling short of the previous high, i.e. 21800, or failure to break the channel (item No. 4 below).
Let's check the bearish elements.
1. 25 EMA on 4H timeframe (gray). Normally this is a very strong resistance. For the middle term, the price wouldn't go up unless 25 EMA is golden-crossed by lower-period EMAs, not only by the close. For the short term? If the price deviated more from 25 EMA, we could expect convergence to it that could be a surge. However, the price is already close to 25 EMA.
2. Oscillators' behavior. They look as if the chart has been moving very bullish, which is what it is not, at least for now. Stochastics is on the ceiling for a considerable period. RSI (blue) is almost touching a red upper band. OBV(red/green) is blocked by its red trendline (which disappears when it's broken).
3. Parallel channel with steep inclination (red). Its upper edge should challenge around 21800-21900.
4. Parallel channel with mild inclination (bage). It may be forming a flag, instead of a double or triple bottom. With preceding steep decline, such a flag would be a bearish one.
評論:
4H image.
1. 25EMA on 4H timeframe (shown by pinescript's "security" function) challenged as expected.
2. Oscillators didn't matter because the range was longer than expected.
3. Red-boardered parallel channel resisted at around 21800-21900.
4. Bage-background, blue-boardered parallel channel has been broken.
Anyway, a bearish flag is confirmed.
Highly likely that the correction wave had been completed at (c) on the right.