比特幣看空
Bitcoin, Crypto, and The Virus of Greed
已更新
Alrighty, now that Bitcoin is flirting with thirty-one thousand, it's time for a real TA / FA update. (Tradingview's got some weird glitches recently so I have to write out some of the prices). I did suggest back in November that Bitcoin seemed due for a rally towards 30k. 
I even suggested that a quick test of the 19.8k level was necessary for a break of the pesky twenty-five thousand resistance:
Here were my "best-case scenario" options, posted back in Summer 2022:
Even though I have been heavily biased to the downside, I have considered the 30k possibility for many months. We're finally here. Now what?
Spring has arrived where I live, and work has been pleasantly slower the last couple weeks. So, I have some time to write. At this point, many of you already know my fundamental analysis on Bitcoin really soured during the last bull run. So if you don't want to read what I have to say or simply do not believe it to be valid, you are of course free to skip over this post. Though one does not need to believe something to be valid in order to listen.
Someone posted on Reddit earlier this week about "the most hated bull run" - I think they'd be correct, particularly if Bitcoin continues significantly up from here to make new all time highs. I think this is because a lot more people now really don’t like Bitcoin, due to the media, due to personal experience, or due to simple reasoning. Crypto is coming off the most widespread bull run since its inception, and the ensuing crash, exchange failures, scams, etc. got a ton of negative media attention. And it has also impacted the lives of many - for the worse. Not only financially, but in terms of the sheer amount of time and attention spent on the market.
I feel incredibly lucky to have gotten out with significant profit, but most did not have such fortitude to both hold through the 2018 bear and make timely sells in 2021/2022, as evidenced by the minuscule number of people who reported crypto gains on their taxes this year. I got all my crypto out when Bitcoin was at least 40k, with a theoretical average purchase price of sub- 6k (theoretical, since I held mostly alts). So, it would take a lot for me to really feel like I've missed out on gains this time around.
I suppose if Bitcoin continues up, the people who didn’t buy sub 20k would watch it go up and scream “WHYYYY?” Because they’re confused. Maybe they also sold the lows, believing that Bitcoin was finished for good. Even “better” yet, they had their funds trapped in an exchange or service that failed. Now they have to watch as everyone who held on and were fortunate enough to avoid all the fraud, scams, etc. get rich and become their new feudal overlords.
Still, I maintain my position that Bitcoin is and will likely continue to be a net negative for society. Sort of like a human-engineered, greed-driven virus that inevitably spreads but has systemic, insidious consequences (such as 2nd millennium feudalism and wasted time/energy). Just think about our cultivation of wheat, and how it caused a major shift into a sedentary, feudal lifestyle rather than cooperative hunter-gathering. Was this ultimately good for humanity? Higher prices tend to attract new investors, who then tend to be dumped on. The average person seems to only like Bitcoin when it’s expensive. This tells you a lot about its utility and its viral nature. So, I am against further price appreciation. And I will be one of the haters if it continues into another bull market. If I were still fundamentally bullish, I'd need to find evidence that the reasons why Bitcoin could be moving up are in fact authentic. I'm really not seeing it.
Are There Any Positives?
I remain very dubious. I want to see what the space looks like once CZ, Stablecoins, and Justin Sun are no longer such significant factors. I guess we’re already seeing the market after a big purge - so that’s a positive (?). We’re also seeing that Bitcoin is rallying along with gold as people run from the banks. Nevertheless, liquidity has truly dried up, and volume shows it. Still more liquid than gold or real estate, so there's that.
Given this, I think Bitcoin can appear to be a short term safety valve for some. This is the only short term bullish narrative that makes sense to me. But I wonder how bitcoin would have faired had the banks NOT been bailed out recently. The perfect test of 19.8k (important as the 2017 all time high on some exchanges) occurred as the bad news caused panic....though price headed back up once CZ bailed out crypto (publicly stated on Twitter) and the U.S. all but bailed out the banks yet again. As Bitcoin has moved up, BNB and TRX have faired especially poorly. Meanwhile, the USDT supply has ballooned, as regulators have come knocking at BUSD and confidence in USDC has declined. USDT supply chart, showing a major spike that correlates with the 2018 bottom: messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ
There is some evidence showing that crypto itself is also bailed out by money printing, just like traditional markets.
TRX and BNB Charts:
Of course, we all know alts sell into Bitcoin at the beginning of a new bull market. So at least there's that. But even now, #2 is starting to outperform again. I do not think this will last, as ETH/BTC has broken a long term uptrend (I wrote about this in my most recent post).
And if ETH/BTC does get back above the broken trend, well I think it becomes even more likely that Bitcoin will see new lows.
Let's Look at The Technicals
Longer term MA’s are still looking a bit precarious, so any drop back below twenty-five thousand and the weekly 200 again is likely to quickly instill some fear in the market. The 9 week EMA (orange) is also important, as you can see from the previous bull run. Currently, that's in the mid- 26k area.
Below 19.8K and I think we’re more likely headed to new lows. The 100 week MA (yellow) has been on a constant decline for 21 weeks now. It only makes sense that price would correct up towards it, which is something I've been speculating about for a while. Maybe there's a little more gas in the tank for a test of the mid-30k range...though as you can see on the chart, weekly volume is starting to drop and the oscillator is hitting the overbought zone (though it can stay in that zone for some time). Usually however, this is a sign that things are starting to get a little overheated, and even the futures market is starting to wake up, with open interest skyrocketing over the last couple days. Source: coinglass.com/pro/futures/Cryptofutures
The last time the 100 week MA declined consistently week-over-week was at the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020 for about 10 weeks. Then it flatlined. The 50 week MA has been declining now for 66 weeks so far, also the longest in Bitcoin's history. In 2018, it only declined for 28 weeks. This still shows us that this has been an aggressive bear market. In 2018, the 100% bounce from the initial 6k low occurred almost immediately. This time, it took many months to produce a significant bounce from the lows. This is why the MA's have curved down so much. Bitcoin arguably needs to get back above its last all-time high quickly to avoid longer term stagnation and decline. This is also because fundamentally this is a time where Bitcoin needs to prove utility. Now, already people are saying new lows are extremely unlikely, and that this is the start of a new bull run. Meanwhile, funding has flipped very positive and OI has spiked. Source: coinglass.com/FundingRate
Indeed, what about that utility?
Just think about it - there are still ONLY ABOUT 1 MILLION Bitcoin active addresses. This means individual, self-custodial adoption has stagnated over the last 5 years. Source: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount
This implies that much of the growth is on exchanges. And we all know how that's played out. Although the average person is using an exchange like Coinbase to hold their coins, exchange balance is historically low. Source: coinglass.com/Balance
This means it's being hoarded by just a few people who bought early enough and simply refuse to sell. Now, let's say Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset or we end up in a scenario where everyone "needs" Bitcoin. BILLIONS of people (meaning THOUSANDS of times more than the number of people who already use it) will need to purchase it from people who already own it, or the people who own it will need to hand it out. Exponential growth would need to occur over the coming years. Bitcoiners still hold out for this magical moment. Nevertheless, there is not enough evidence yet to suggest Bitcoin can flow freely through an economy in a healthy manner. Logistically, Bitcoin adoption it seems extremely flawed to me. But....humans are not logical or rational, so I suppose if you can make money trading Bitcoin (as long as you are not attached to a narrative) it can be extremely lucrative. That's why I'm still on this sub - it's about trading, at the end of the day. Even though I lean towards the bearish narrative, that clearly does not mean price will go down.
As I stated above, individual, self-custodial adoption has essentially flatlined. We've seen a very slight increase due to the recent price action attracting some new buyers. Overall, the trend has significantly slowed since 2017. With only 1 Million active addresses, this is peanuts when compared to global economic activity. This number would really need to exceed the 2018 and 2022 ATH of roughly 1.2M, and the number would also need to increase as price drops, showing authentic, non-price driven demand. Hate to break it to the bulls, but this is not promising so far. Let's see though! As always, things can change on a dime. If the global situation shifts abruptly for the worse, I have a feeling there will be much more to worry about than digital assets. And if it shifts for the better, the doomer bitcoin hoarding narrative may simply fade away, since Bitcoin is regressive in concept (hard money) but futuristic in its medium (code). To me, an optimistic society seems unlikely to want to regress or set limits on how we may transact.
If society continues down the route of pessimism and distrust, I can see Bitcoin becoming more popular. As I look at RKF Jr and the fact that he's endorsed by Steve Bannon, I worry that Bitcoin's dangerous flirtation with fascism will become more than just simple flirtation. Bannon has outwardly said in interviews and documentaries that he is working to build fascist governments in the U.S. and Europe in order to cause broader, violent conflict. His endorsement for a Bitcoin-backing democratic candidate should give anyone pause. How awful would it be for people to be siphoned away from their real economic means through Bitcoin, only to be commanded to give it all up to the government? Remember, addresses are public, especially if self-custodied. Populist movements can quickly become authoritarian and fascist. Bannon wants disorder and distrust so him and a select few puppets can take control. He loves this stuff. He lives and breathes manipulation on a mass scale. The virus of greed.
Looking Forward
I think this is a time where people should be investing in their communities, and sharing their gripes with their neighbors. "Protesting with your wallet" is passive, and it won't do much good if you're so over-invested that you lack the means to get yourself through the week or save for an emergency. Looking at the ballooning credit bubble, this seems to be a terrible time to leverage any bets. My current speculation is that we can see this bubble pop some time over the next 2 years, resulting in market chaos and a return to community, with mass-disillusionment and distrust of governments, finance, and institutions. Bitcoin may seem attractive, but in the end I think adopting it would be counter-intuitive as mentioned above.
Future-building takes action, and strong social/material infrastructure. Bitcoin does not offer this. I think we should be weary of the true implications of Bitcoin, it's hold on the mind and its diversion away from intentional, productive investing. The alternative is not just stocks or the traditional financial system. There are plenty of other options. Greed is really fear in disguise.
I apologize if any of this is difficult to parse out. Just sharing my thoughts as we continue through this fascinating times.
Best of luck trading to everyone! Any hate/disrespect will likely be met with humor, as I just don't have the energy to respond in kind.
-Victor Cobra
I even suggested that a quick test of the 19.8k level was necessary for a break of the pesky twenty-five thousand resistance:
Here were my "best-case scenario" options, posted back in Summer 2022:
Even though I have been heavily biased to the downside, I have considered the 30k possibility for many months. We're finally here. Now what?
Spring has arrived where I live, and work has been pleasantly slower the last couple weeks. So, I have some time to write. At this point, many of you already know my fundamental analysis on Bitcoin really soured during the last bull run. So if you don't want to read what I have to say or simply do not believe it to be valid, you are of course free to skip over this post. Though one does not need to believe something to be valid in order to listen.
Someone posted on Reddit earlier this week about "the most hated bull run" - I think they'd be correct, particularly if Bitcoin continues significantly up from here to make new all time highs. I think this is because a lot more people now really don’t like Bitcoin, due to the media, due to personal experience, or due to simple reasoning. Crypto is coming off the most widespread bull run since its inception, and the ensuing crash, exchange failures, scams, etc. got a ton of negative media attention. And it has also impacted the lives of many - for the worse. Not only financially, but in terms of the sheer amount of time and attention spent on the market.
I feel incredibly lucky to have gotten out with significant profit, but most did not have such fortitude to both hold through the 2018 bear and make timely sells in 2021/2022, as evidenced by the minuscule number of people who reported crypto gains on their taxes this year. I got all my crypto out when Bitcoin was at least 40k, with a theoretical average purchase price of sub- 6k (theoretical, since I held mostly alts). So, it would take a lot for me to really feel like I've missed out on gains this time around.
I suppose if Bitcoin continues up, the people who didn’t buy sub 20k would watch it go up and scream “WHYYYY?” Because they’re confused. Maybe they also sold the lows, believing that Bitcoin was finished for good. Even “better” yet, they had their funds trapped in an exchange or service that failed. Now they have to watch as everyone who held on and were fortunate enough to avoid all the fraud, scams, etc. get rich and become their new feudal overlords.
Still, I maintain my position that Bitcoin is and will likely continue to be a net negative for society. Sort of like a human-engineered, greed-driven virus that inevitably spreads but has systemic, insidious consequences (such as 2nd millennium feudalism and wasted time/energy). Just think about our cultivation of wheat, and how it caused a major shift into a sedentary, feudal lifestyle rather than cooperative hunter-gathering. Was this ultimately good for humanity? Higher prices tend to attract new investors, who then tend to be dumped on. The average person seems to only like Bitcoin when it’s expensive. This tells you a lot about its utility and its viral nature. So, I am against further price appreciation. And I will be one of the haters if it continues into another bull market. If I were still fundamentally bullish, I'd need to find evidence that the reasons why Bitcoin could be moving up are in fact authentic. I'm really not seeing it.
Are There Any Positives?
I remain very dubious. I want to see what the space looks like once CZ, Stablecoins, and Justin Sun are no longer such significant factors. I guess we’re already seeing the market after a big purge - so that’s a positive (?). We’re also seeing that Bitcoin is rallying along with gold as people run from the banks. Nevertheless, liquidity has truly dried up, and volume shows it. Still more liquid than gold or real estate, so there's that.
Given this, I think Bitcoin can appear to be a short term safety valve for some. This is the only short term bullish narrative that makes sense to me. But I wonder how bitcoin would have faired had the banks NOT been bailed out recently. The perfect test of 19.8k (important as the 2017 all time high on some exchanges) occurred as the bad news caused panic....though price headed back up once CZ bailed out crypto (publicly stated on Twitter) and the U.S. all but bailed out the banks yet again. As Bitcoin has moved up, BNB and TRX have faired especially poorly. Meanwhile, the USDT supply has ballooned, as regulators have come knocking at BUSD and confidence in USDC has declined. USDT supply chart, showing a major spike that correlates with the 2018 bottom: messari.io/asset/tether/chart/sply-circ
There is some evidence showing that crypto itself is also bailed out by money printing, just like traditional markets.
TRX and BNB Charts:
Of course, we all know alts sell into Bitcoin at the beginning of a new bull market. So at least there's that. But even now, #2 is starting to outperform again. I do not think this will last, as ETH/BTC has broken a long term uptrend (I wrote about this in my most recent post).
And if ETH/BTC does get back above the broken trend, well I think it becomes even more likely that Bitcoin will see new lows.
Let's Look at The Technicals
Longer term MA’s are still looking a bit precarious, so any drop back below twenty-five thousand and the weekly 200 again is likely to quickly instill some fear in the market. The 9 week EMA (orange) is also important, as you can see from the previous bull run. Currently, that's in the mid- 26k area.
Below 19.8K and I think we’re more likely headed to new lows. The 100 week MA (yellow) has been on a constant decline for 21 weeks now. It only makes sense that price would correct up towards it, which is something I've been speculating about for a while. Maybe there's a little more gas in the tank for a test of the mid-30k range...though as you can see on the chart, weekly volume is starting to drop and the oscillator is hitting the overbought zone (though it can stay in that zone for some time). Usually however, this is a sign that things are starting to get a little overheated, and even the futures market is starting to wake up, with open interest skyrocketing over the last couple days. Source: coinglass.com/pro/futures/Cryptofutures
The last time the 100 week MA declined consistently week-over-week was at the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020 for about 10 weeks. Then it flatlined. The 50 week MA has been declining now for 66 weeks so far, also the longest in Bitcoin's history. In 2018, it only declined for 28 weeks. This still shows us that this has been an aggressive bear market. In 2018, the 100% bounce from the initial 6k low occurred almost immediately. This time, it took many months to produce a significant bounce from the lows. This is why the MA's have curved down so much. Bitcoin arguably needs to get back above its last all-time high quickly to avoid longer term stagnation and decline. This is also because fundamentally this is a time where Bitcoin needs to prove utility. Now, already people are saying new lows are extremely unlikely, and that this is the start of a new bull run. Meanwhile, funding has flipped very positive and OI has spiked. Source: coinglass.com/FundingRate
Indeed, what about that utility?
Just think about it - there are still ONLY ABOUT 1 MILLION Bitcoin active addresses. This means individual, self-custodial adoption has stagnated over the last 5 years. Source: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount
This implies that much of the growth is on exchanges. And we all know how that's played out. Although the average person is using an exchange like Coinbase to hold their coins, exchange balance is historically low. Source: coinglass.com/Balance
This means it's being hoarded by just a few people who bought early enough and simply refuse to sell. Now, let's say Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset or we end up in a scenario where everyone "needs" Bitcoin. BILLIONS of people (meaning THOUSANDS of times more than the number of people who already use it) will need to purchase it from people who already own it, or the people who own it will need to hand it out. Exponential growth would need to occur over the coming years. Bitcoiners still hold out for this magical moment. Nevertheless, there is not enough evidence yet to suggest Bitcoin can flow freely through an economy in a healthy manner. Logistically, Bitcoin adoption it seems extremely flawed to me. But....humans are not logical or rational, so I suppose if you can make money trading Bitcoin (as long as you are not attached to a narrative) it can be extremely lucrative. That's why I'm still on this sub - it's about trading, at the end of the day. Even though I lean towards the bearish narrative, that clearly does not mean price will go down.
As I stated above, individual, self-custodial adoption has essentially flatlined. We've seen a very slight increase due to the recent price action attracting some new buyers. Overall, the trend has significantly slowed since 2017. With only 1 Million active addresses, this is peanuts when compared to global economic activity. This number would really need to exceed the 2018 and 2022 ATH of roughly 1.2M, and the number would also need to increase as price drops, showing authentic, non-price driven demand. Hate to break it to the bulls, but this is not promising so far. Let's see though! As always, things can change on a dime. If the global situation shifts abruptly for the worse, I have a feeling there will be much more to worry about than digital assets. And if it shifts for the better, the doomer bitcoin hoarding narrative may simply fade away, since Bitcoin is regressive in concept (hard money) but futuristic in its medium (code). To me, an optimistic society seems unlikely to want to regress or set limits on how we may transact.
If society continues down the route of pessimism and distrust, I can see Bitcoin becoming more popular. As I look at RKF Jr and the fact that he's endorsed by Steve Bannon, I worry that Bitcoin's dangerous flirtation with fascism will become more than just simple flirtation. Bannon has outwardly said in interviews and documentaries that he is working to build fascist governments in the U.S. and Europe in order to cause broader, violent conflict. His endorsement for a Bitcoin-backing democratic candidate should give anyone pause. How awful would it be for people to be siphoned away from their real economic means through Bitcoin, only to be commanded to give it all up to the government? Remember, addresses are public, especially if self-custodied. Populist movements can quickly become authoritarian and fascist. Bannon wants disorder and distrust so him and a select few puppets can take control. He loves this stuff. He lives and breathes manipulation on a mass scale. The virus of greed.
Looking Forward
I think this is a time where people should be investing in their communities, and sharing their gripes with their neighbors. "Protesting with your wallet" is passive, and it won't do much good if you're so over-invested that you lack the means to get yourself through the week or save for an emergency. Looking at the ballooning credit bubble, this seems to be a terrible time to leverage any bets. My current speculation is that we can see this bubble pop some time over the next 2 years, resulting in market chaos and a return to community, with mass-disillusionment and distrust of governments, finance, and institutions. Bitcoin may seem attractive, but in the end I think adopting it would be counter-intuitive as mentioned above.
Future-building takes action, and strong social/material infrastructure. Bitcoin does not offer this. I think we should be weary of the true implications of Bitcoin, it's hold on the mind and its diversion away from intentional, productive investing. The alternative is not just stocks or the traditional financial system. There are plenty of other options. Greed is really fear in disguise.
I apologize if any of this is difficult to parse out. Just sharing my thoughts as we continue through this fascinating times.
Best of luck trading to everyone! Any hate/disrespect will likely be met with humor, as I just don't have the energy to respond in kind.
-Victor Cobra
註釋
When I reference "this sub" above, I refer to the Reddit bitcoinmarkets forum, where I have posted over the years. I was originally going to cross-post this to reddit, but it was too long :P註釋
And of course, this is not meant as financial advice or a recommendation to buy and sell. This is meant for personal expression, speculation, and entertainment only.
註釋
As you can see, tradingview has made writing Bitcoin prices a bit infuriating. What even are those tickers?註釋
Failure at the rising trendline has resulted in a pullback towards the mid-
29 zone. It seems reasonable to also expect a retest of 28.8k, but if that rising support falls we can see escalation to the downside. 註釋
Better view of the channel. 
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