Possible BEAR Trap has formed

2019年9月10日

I have been short for the past week since the fall earlier this week which closed below the trend line. Like everyone else, I've been watching this descending triangle/falling wedge anticipating a big move. Along with this large structure setup, the US/China trade war ongoing, and the much anticipated launch of BAKKT; I was looking for a nice dump to re-touch the structure floor around $9000-9300 and see how price reacts. After analyzing the chart today looking for confirmations of my predictions I noticed a possible BEAR trap on the 4H. I found a strong trend line formation which began from the high on 8/19 at $10950 with re-touch/rejection/resistance on 8/25 at $10685. This descending trend line was broken on 9/2 with re-touch/support on 9/3, 9/6, and 9/9. While price did wick below this descending trend line during the last 4H candle, it failed to close below. Also, since the previous high at $10930 on 9/6 a falling wedge has been formed with a re-touch/rejection/resistance yesterday at $10540. This formation has me second guessing my price prediction as there are several factors, as I previously mentioned, that would influence a massive move to the upside and the big money could be easily be influencing this price to accumulate while manipulating retail traders into thinking it's about to dump. A part from the strong support around the low-9k levels, there is a massive ascending trend line as well which began on 7/16 when price dumped to $9080 with a re-touch/support on 7/28 at $9125. There is another, weaker, ascending trend line which began at the previous low on 8/29 at $9325 and re-touch/support on 8/31 at $9440.

With all that said, I am keeping a very close eye on charts today. While many are anticipating a few more days of bouncing around in this range, I am not so sure. A close below $9800 will confirm my original prediction and my initial TP will be around $9200 then will see how price reacts. If price cannot close below $9800 and instead can close above $10470-10570, I will be looking to go long. HOWEVER, watch for a possible rejection around $10750-10950 as an ascending trend line has formed starting on 8/31 at $9440 and a re-touch/support on 9/6 at $10190.

Let me know what you think.

2019年9月11日

評論

Decision time incoming. Both structures discussed yesterday remain unbroken. The falling wedge has been wicked through twice on the 4H time frame but price has yet to close below. Price has also wicked through the ascending trend line once and bounced off of it once; again has yet to have a close below. If price is to dump, expecting at least one more stop-hunt wick up to $10180 before doing so; if we can get a close above $10550-10600 I believe we will have continuation up and out of this larger structure with a short pause around $10950-11100 as people anticipate continuation in this structure and are looking for price to yet again dump back down to this range. With a close below $9850, continuation down is very likely and will be looking for initial TP around $9450 and $9200. If a breakdown to these levels occur, I do not feel the larger structure floor will hold so I will be looking for a small bounce off the low-9k level back to $9900-10000 before a massive dump. I do not like trying to predict future price that far in the future but should that dump occur watch for the following levels as these will most likely be the best and last time for an excellent entry for the next moon shot. $8500 - $7500 - $6600...

As always let me know what you think.

2019年9月11日

評論

The suspense is killing me. So far so good. Everything is setting up as mentioned previously. Price jumped up to hit $10180 and now waiting to see what happens. Since I've been short and anticipated this move, I increased my position size with the wick to $10180; however, as mentioned previously with a close above $10550-10600 I will close my short with a small loss and intend on opening a long position. Be careful during the next few hours as a new minor trend line appears which starts on 9/8 at $10600 and hits again on 9/9 at $10540. Price can break out of and close above this falling wedge. If this happens my last BEARISH stance will be that this new trend line is forming a descending channel and intend on increasing my short once more around $10375-10425. The lower time frames, 15MIN-1H-2H, are not convincing me that price intends to breakout but instead anticipating a large dump in the next few hours.

Also always let me know what you think.