In the columns of TradingView, we have regularly offered you technical and fundamental monitoring of the fundamental uptrend in the bitcoin price. The latter has been supported by its positive correlation with the equity market (new all-time high for the S&P 500 and new all-time high for the MSCI World index for the global equity market), its negative correlation with the trend in the US dollar (DXY) and market interest rates, and finally its positive correlation with the trend in M2 global liquidity. On this subject of global M2 liquidity and BTC, I invite you to reread the analysis below by clicking on the chart.
Four charts currently favor a continuation of the uptrend in the bitcoin price, as well as in altcoins if and only if favorable signals of relative strength are given.
1) Bullish resolution of a bullish flag pattern on the daily BTC price
The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlestick pattern on the bitcoin price. The market has achieved a technical breakout of a bull flag configuration, a technical pattern found in the list of bullish continuation formations. The technical target for this pattern is $125/130K, and the bullish invalidation threshold is below support at $105K.
2) Cycle repetition on a calendar basis from the last year of the bull run
Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving ends at the end of 2025. When comparing cycles, it's interesting to note that from the end of July onwards, there's a bullish technical confluence of the three previous cycles for their fourth and final cycle year (Bitcoin follows a 4-year cycle as a reminder, structured around the four-year halving). If our current cycle aligns with the average of past cycles, then the price of bitcoin could trend towards US$150,000 by the end of 2025.
3) Bitcoin's dominance chart is validating a bearish divergence in weekly data
This is a long-awaited signal from the crypto investment community, namely the day when bitcoin's dominance will recede to make way for better relative behavior from altcoins. It's a phenomenon known as “altcoin season”, and it will come about if, and only if, BTC's dominance gives a downward reversal signal. That's why we need to keep a close eye on this potential bearish divergence on BTC dominance.
4) ALTCOINS: there's a potential bullish divergence on the ratio between altcoins (represented by the TOTAL3 index) and BTC
But it's the altcoins/bitcoin ratio that's the best barometer for seeing a potential altcoin season coming. This ratio is embodied here by the TOTAL3/BTC ratio, and a potential bullish divergence is forming. Should this ratio confirm it by breaking through technical resistance, this would signal the start of the altcoin season.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Four charts currently favor a continuation of the uptrend in the bitcoin price, as well as in altcoins if and only if favorable signals of relative strength are given.
1) Bullish resolution of a bullish flag pattern on the daily BTC price
The chart below shows the daily Japanese candlestick pattern on the bitcoin price. The market has achieved a technical breakout of a bull flag configuration, a technical pattern found in the list of bullish continuation formations. The technical target for this pattern is $125/130K, and the bullish invalidation threshold is below support at $105K.
2) Cycle repetition on a calendar basis from the last year of the bull run
Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving ends at the end of 2025. When comparing cycles, it's interesting to note that from the end of July onwards, there's a bullish technical confluence of the three previous cycles for their fourth and final cycle year (Bitcoin follows a 4-year cycle as a reminder, structured around the four-year halving). If our current cycle aligns with the average of past cycles, then the price of bitcoin could trend towards US$150,000 by the end of 2025.
3) Bitcoin's dominance chart is validating a bearish divergence in weekly data
This is a long-awaited signal from the crypto investment community, namely the day when bitcoin's dominance will recede to make way for better relative behavior from altcoins. It's a phenomenon known as “altcoin season”, and it will come about if, and only if, BTC's dominance gives a downward reversal signal. That's why we need to keep a close eye on this potential bearish divergence on BTC dominance.
4) ALTCOINS: there's a potential bullish divergence on the ratio between altcoins (represented by the TOTAL3 index) and BTC
But it's the altcoins/bitcoin ratio that's the best barometer for seeing a potential altcoin season coming. This ratio is embodied here by the TOTAL3/BTC ratio, and a potential bullish divergence is forming. Should this ratio confirm it by breaking through technical resistance, this would signal the start of the altcoin season.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
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This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。