Bitcoin Volume Waivering but Continued Uptrend Supported

I've seen a lot of predictions for this cycle. From zero to 1 million. The most commonly believed (and dare I say supported?) forecast is 100k. While I think 100k is feasible for many reasons, particularly because stock 2 flow, fibonnaci and EW would support it; I am erring on the side of a more conservative forecast here around 88k.

The reason I'm slightly conservative is the pronounced weakness of BTC to hold 60k so far. If you look at the volume flow it shows a decline at 9 degrees during the same period in which BTC is gaining value at 10 degree uptrend at the macro level and around 4 degree increase on the short term. This type of divergence can indicate the end of a wave 5 EW pattern and precedes the corrective pattern that follows. This doesn't mean the bull market is over, but this quarterly EW pattern may be played out and we will retrace a little before its next push up.

That said, we are still in bullish territory overall, with VFI around 30 and have not completed wave 5 of this pattern. In the very short term (14/15 February) we'll likely range a little below/at 60k as Bitcoin consolidates. At the low end I'd expect 56k worst case, but 58k most likely with a high end of 61.x

Week Forecast:
Its not unreasonable to push to around 66k by weeks end, but buyers need to break resistance between 61 and 62k first. I suspect this will take a few days of consolidation unless we see another unexpected big green candle, in which case we accelerate our forecast. This will be invalidated if we retrace to 53k or lower.

Month Forecast:
By months end I have us tapping the top of our channel around 71k. This is a decision point for BTC. A bullish divergence could push us out and into more aggressive price exploration and accelerate this cycle, or we will reverse off the top of the channel and begin a corrective pattern before beginning the (potential) final push in this cycle. Mostly likely: we will retrace, probably to mid 50s but I have to do some TA on that.

Longer Range Forecast:
My personal target this cycle is 88k. I feel comfortable that it fits nicely at the convergence of multiple trends. However, as I said above, other trends will forecast to 100k quite easily, including S2F which is generally pretty consistent in reporting BTC trends.

Recommendation:
Plan for a few more small retracements on our way to the top of the chart this cycle. If we break North of the channel at any point, run tight stoplosses because its probably an indication of end game for this cycle. If we reach mid 80k also exercise caution as thats the top of my comfort zone. And if VFI declines more aggressive than it is now, be cautious.