VincentBoudewijn
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Bitcoin and the attack on the downtrend channel!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Hi everyone,

First of all I hope you are having a wonderful day. Some of you know me for my bitcoin bottom call and are wondering why my post 'The Legendary Bitcoin Shorting Squeeze' can no longer be found.
It's because I have a been a bad boy and violated the tradingview house rules. I was enjoying bear blood too much. To those that I offended: I'm sorry and I won't write so mean again.


Now onto the next scenario:
We had a huge EXPLOSION caused by the shorting squeeze.
The question that I ask myself is where can we be heading from here?

So I start to look for signs that might give an indication. Here is my list of clues that I wanted to share with you:

1. Explosive fractal . - Usually explosive fractals come to calm down a bit and move sideways/slightly up. If the trend is bullish they breakout after everyone has calmed down a bit.
2. Historical resistance levels - The small dotted line is a resistance level that you can draw from our old downtrend. The red dotted line is our final downtrend resistance. Bitcoin interacts with these levels.
3. Resistance and support levels - I noticed that Bitcoin confirmed a few levels already by itself. 8185 as resistance and 7833 as support.
3. Price channel - Price usually moves in a channel. From those levels written above I was able to draw a channel. I combined this channel with the explosive fractal to project a possible indication of price movement.
4. Projected fractal resistance and support - These are projected levels that 'could' be true. (Marked in blue)

By combining this data I made a projection of where the price could go. In human emotions it would mean: Calm down, rest, before we pump again.

If we can manage to stay up on these given levels. We should make an attempt to destroy 8500 by next week.
f we succeed the king will be ressurected and he will provide us with missiles to destroy the moon and collapse jupiter , not to mention the inplosion of saturn.

Please note, this is just a scenario. Not a fact. Always do your own research and consider both bullish and bearish outcomes. Never put your fate in one trader.
Always consider that humans make mistakes. I hope this helps you out fixing the next puzzle!

Last but not least: Coming soon.. An educational post about market psychology and how you can beat every market in the end!


Greetings,
Vincent
評論: If you like my posts think about giving it a thumbs up! :-)
評論: Hi everyone,


(4H) Here is my update on this trade. We can see that Bitcoin has exited the channel, climbed on top of it and it looks like it is confirming it as support level. You can see that we are closing in on testing the big bad downtrend resistance (red).

If we take a look at the (4H) RSi we can see that a bearish divergence is forming. This tells us that the bulls are a bit tired.. a retracement is closing in. Although it is closing in I does not mean we can't go higher right now. In my chart you can see how I think the RSI and price will play out. I think that we will pump higer to around 86xx -87xx and then start retracing back to 8k.

I think we will retrace to 8k because of the confirmed support line and it also matches with our fibionacci retracement level.

If we can hold 8k it would be a very strong and bullish sign. From there we can start to challenge the big bad downtrend channel(red)


In my chart I hav
評論:

(Sorry for the typo)
評論: Updated my chart. (1H) I think there should be room for one more small jump pump before we start retracing. There isn't that much room in RSi anymore.

評論: Hey guys,

So as you can see my prediction played out. We dropped down.
Now alot of people still question the trend is really bull. So im going to show you what a wave like this would look like in a bull trend:



Our trend:




This is a natural pullback wave. You can see that we drop down (as we just did), then move up a bit and then the real 'pullback' starts.

So here is what we have now.. I added the pullback example roughly on our chart.



So I think we should be able to move up a bit and then really start our 'pullback'.
Now there comes an important moment. If the trend is bull we get picked up at the 'pullback' around 76xx. If we get dumped the trend is not bullish enough.

Have a great day guys! Thanks for following my research ;-)
評論:

What accuracy! You can see that we landed exactly on my target of 7930.
You can see that it is a great support level.

Okay so this was the first bit of the pullback wave. We should now be clear to move to 8300 - 8400.
In my screenshot you can see how I think this will work out in price and RSI. I think that the divergence will be pulled further later in the price action. From there we will get rejected and start the 'main' pullback wave.

This will be the scary one cause it can go pretty deep. To around 76xx.
That moment will be very important:

If the trend = bull, it will go up from 76xx
If the trend = bear, it will fall down from 76xx.

So far so good! Thanks for the read and goodluck!
評論: Hi everyone,

As you can see we are climbing to our target. By judging the RSI this does not have alot steam left. So it might hit 8300 max. I don't expect a massive jump to happen.

After that it will be retracement time! Judgement day! Bullrun or no bullrun! 76XX will decide!

評論: The season finale! Don't miss it!

New analysis:

going to 7.9-8 now
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dumppppppppppppppp
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crazy how the price is following the fractal.
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Good work !!!! Came on bulls go go go
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working
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Have you forgotten about this?
I think it's still valid.
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@aniki9, I don't think so its too far ahead. But we will find out this week once the pullback sets in. If we hold 76xx = bull, if we fail at 76xx = bear.
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@aniki9, The market back then was very different. It was associated mainly with drugs. People didn't understand blockchain. Today everything is more serious. If you check back one of my first predictions on tradingview I also did a fractal prediction. You can see that it failed. It is right that we follow the same fractal sometimes. But I have seen that they can suddenly break. I think the same will happen this week and we will launch into bullrun territory
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aniki9 VincentBoudewijn
@VincentBoudewijn, Thanks for all the detailed info, I really appreciate it!
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@aniki9, Fractals can be used as an indicator but should not be treated as facts. They break and suddenly shift into a different path.
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