Bitcoin Monthly Full Chart Analysis @AlanSantana

2021年12月4日

Let me start by saying that we've never had this type of monthly chart on the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trading pair.

In the past, each time an All-Time High was hit it would always, without exception, be followed by a long-term correction before prices continue to grow.

This time around, we hit a new All-Time High in April 2021 and after only a few months a new All-Time High was hit in October 2021. Goes to show how much excitement and bullish sentiment Bitcoin is enjoying.

Now, hit LIKE and let's read this chart together.

Bitcoin Monthly Analysis with Alan Santana (AlanSantana)
Going Back To Basics!

The first step always is to go back to basics, specially when emotions are running, in this case, when the market is hot and moving strong.

Looking at Bitcoin monthly, nothing has really happened... Bitcoin peaked but EMA10 still remains as support.

What's scary is what comes next, the potential is huge for another drop. The month is just starting and things can change fast but a monthly close below EMA10 and the doors are open for EMA50 ($23218) to be tested as support... Let's not get ahead of ourselves, let's just focus on reading the chart.

The basics

- Higher high doesn't count. We had a high of $64,895 in April followed by $69,000, this is technically the same high TA wise, since Bitcoin grew out of $3,850.

- Bitcoin monthly tested EMA10 as support and failed to break resistance on the next jump. When this happens the next support level needs to be tested before any additional growth. This puts the next monthly support at $36,565 or EMA21 but this is only short-term. The support level that will come into play based on my EMA analysis is EMA50 at 23k.

- Plenty of room to drop on the indicators + bearish signals.
The MACD hit a new high while the histogram keeps going lower.
There is plenty of room for a drop lower after new ATHs have been hit:

- RSI bearish divergence (monthly makes it a very strong negative signal).
While Bitcoin peaked in October the RSI did so in March 2021. So Bitcoin's relative strength index has been dropping since March, making it weaker and weaker.
There is also a long-term bearish divergence compared with Dec. 2017.
This can either mean that the bull-run is not yet over or that a longer correction needs to take place to reset these values.
The rising trend-line has also been broken. The RSI has a bearish bias.


- Trading volume keeps going lower and lower. This signal isn't good either.

Conclusion

The month started just 4 days ago.
The bearish momentum picked up speed today.
It is very hard to say in the monthly what will happen next as we have 27 more days before this candle closes.

Still, Bitcoin grew from a $3,850 low in March 2020 to a high of $69,000 in October 2021, we wouldn't be surprise to see additional correction.

If Bitcoin hits $38,500 on a drop, it would still be 10X higher than the March 2020 low, which is pretty high.

The support levels that are in-play go as follow:

Immediate support > $44,000 / $41,000
Next support (critical support) > $36,000 / $34,000
Bitcoin bleeds support > $28,000 / $23,215
Long lower wick shakeout > $18,000

Note: If Bitcoin stays trading above EMA10 monthly, the bearish bias is invalidated. The longer that prices stay above EMA10, the less likely is for the bearish bias to develop.

If Bitcoin moves and closes below EMA10, here set at $46,120, then we can easily see a stronger drop. The faster this level is taken down, the lower that Bitcoin will go.

What happened to 100k?

The month is just started, the recent move was pretty strong.

We can have a quick and fast correction, a long wick and then resume the growth.

But this can also turn into a long drawn out correction...

We will definitely hit 100K and beyond but we have to wait for the correction to be over and this can happen fast as it can happen slow.

Thank you if you read this far.
This is just my view based on the chart and past experience.

I hope you enjoyed the content.
I am always grateful for your continued support.

Namaste.

2022年5月12日

註釋

EMA50 monthly has been tested as support.

Perfect hit. BTCUSD

2023年3月17日

註釋

Predicting the crash in December 2021.

Sorry I am updating an old trade idea but I am showing it to some friends that wanted to see it.

I always focus on the chart.

✔️ When the market is bearish, I call the bearish potential.
✔️ When the market is bullish, I call the bullish potential.

I've been reading the charts for you for many years now.
When it is bullish bullish, when bearish bearish.

Thanks a lot for the support.

Namaste.