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Short term Bitcoin Short, due to cumulative volume exhaustion

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Position size maximum 20% equity. Leverage max 5x for this volatility . Current price 681USD, stop loss 705USD. Targets are 590, 565, 534, 511, 480. Liquidation of 15%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 10% at these positions respectively.

EXIT: Futures premium reach -1%, close all short position.
Fisher reach under 1st bar and is heading up, close all short position.
OBV reach 472000, close 50% of positions. OBV reach 461500, close all positions.

==

Reasoning. 1. Futures premium is at 6%, an overbought value, and we are not even close to making new high at 780. First sign of overbullish sentiment proportional to price movement.

2. Fisher transform , timeframe for rally is past already. When fisher is under middle bar there is potential for rally. Fisher is above 5th bar and is going down, dropping from here is very likely for at least 48 hours.

3. On Balance Volume is at TOPPING levels. Price is $100 lower from top. OBV is at same level as top. That means all coins dumped have already been rebought, and price settled lower. The market has no more buying power according to cumulative volume counts.

Remember that fundamentals don't change in 2 weeks. the entirety of the short term market is SPECULATION. I am here to map it.



交易進行: Good start to the trade thus far. Be careful futures premium is dropping faster than anticipated. We might have a premature end to this down move if it reaches -1%.
交易進行: Still great trade. Fut premium is safe again. Continue
評論: Cum volume, fut premium, fisher and other indicators are still in overbought territory. There is little room for upwards move, there is lot of room for downwards move. However time window for this trade is running out. If market stays stagnant this trade is closed and capital will be better allocated to COST long.
評論: Since underlying conditions are same as when trade opened, extension of trade timeline by 1 month.
評論: Closed trade immediately. Tiny profit. Because Futures premium only at 1% today. No longer overbought. Looking for a good entry for a long now.
手動結束交易
評論:

New parameters for short.
評論:

Updated short. New updated parameters
評論: ^ link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD3M/ 1zBx5rAU-Lower-highs-indicative-of-Bitcoin-downtrend/

(remove spaces). Have to do this or tradingview turns link into chart
is this correct link? looks like to old chart? sorry If I am wrong I am only new user here.. Thank you for your great ideas
+3 回覆
reattle perpetualX
+1 回覆


New parameters for short.
+1 回覆
awesome trade, bad execution.

why did you bail out even though you should have stayed in according to your own rules?
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I guess you could have waited a couple more hours! Don't blame you though... I am afraid we are headed into a crypto bear market. We'll see what happens.
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i told you
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Think too much time has passed for any real dumping. Just looking at the chart above. Its leveled off. Also bitcoin loves to retest previous highs then do the big dump. IMO if it reaches 700 again its going higher.
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Can't short BTC ;P
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You are great, I hope you update the chart
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Nice use of fisher transform. Try extending the period from 14 to 65 or greater to reveal some longer-term patterns.
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