Yellow Trend: Current channel
Light Blue Trend: Multi-year macro trend channel
Bottom yellow trend: Also was the neckline of an where the target is posted in the light green box. That box also crosses with the top yellow .
We need to see a higher high, above the green box and a higher low than the 6k low we made. I assume the higher low will not be an issue...6k seems a thing of the past imo , however we still have not made a higher high during this down cycle.
This run has been great but I am still not full bull until we see candles start pushing into and above the Kumo cloud where a higher high will have been made and a break in the top yellow will have occurred.
Likely scenario for now seems to be some consolidation between 11.8k and 9.4k for a little bit and likely an alts season occurs before BTC next leg up. If we do break through 12k then I would look more towards the long-term light blue trend channel to guide with horizontal supports. Right now however the yellow trend channel is still intact.
I have been looking at my long-term alt holdings and adding to some of those bags I am very on and have lowered my BTC holdings to 25% of my overall portfolio.
The main note to make though is sentiment. The aggressive FUD was so transparently orchestrated that the fall down to 6k seems almost manufactured. The rise to 20k was too fast no doubt but the collapse between China (banning BTC for the 100th time but having deals with NEO, DBC and other crypto mining firms), Korea (banning then not banning and then allowing their own exchanges to work with banks for needed regulation), India (banning then not banning and working with banks for regulation), Tether, BitConnect...etc. All the FUD that could've led to corrections in the market all occurred at once and created a massive hysteria. Now, the majority of sentiment is extremely bullish and I am not sure what could really come at this point. Korea, India, Japan are all good with crypto. USA is good with crypto. China is doing whatever it does.