BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching For 4100 Support Break.

BTCUSD Update: Selling momentum is beginning to reveal itself, but is not confirmed until 4104 (.382 of bullish swing) is taken out.

Smaller time frame price action has been very misleading because it looked bullish on its way to 4400, but the bigger picture always carries more weight, and it is not bullish. As a swing trader, the bigger picture is key for decision making because that is the magnitude of risk and reward that will affect my outcome.

With that being said, the 4104 support break is required to confirm that the selling momentum has something behind it. This is not a sell trigger, it is a confirmation that prompts me to look for the next lower high which is more likely to follow AFTER the support break. If this support holds, I will interpret that as price is still lingering in a very tough resistance area which presents high risk for swing trade longs.

As time goes by (and no major price reactions), it is possible for this market to build a supportive base in this area that can eventually lead to higher prices, but until I see any signs of that, I have no intention of getting long.

The 3865 to 3706 (.618 of recent bullish swing) is the next support area where price is most likely to react upon a retest. The reason why I will not be looking for longs here is the same, risk is too high on the swing trading time frame especially since this support zone is more likely to break. (Lower highs often lead to lower lows).

So when will I begin looking for longs on the swing trade time frame? Either we break out above 4550, and on the subsequent retrace I will be looking, OR the more likely scenario which is the C Wave unfolds and completes at much lower prices, followed by new supportive structure. Also as I have written about before, IF the C Wave asserts itself and we get some low prices, I will also be buying as an investment, which is separate from a swing trade.

In summary, if there is any lesson we can learn from the current market conditions, it is the value of patience. Some traders have written some excellent comments that show their understanding that these markets will always be going higher and lower and always be presenting new opportunities with relative risks. If you are anxious for action, you can always day trade, but you have to have the plan, the time and attention span. If you are looking to capture broader movements without being glued to a computer screen all day, then you have to accept the amount of patience that is required. Think about it this way: Patience will not drain your capital. If you miss "the move", you will still have your capital to participate in "the next move". Movement and opportunities are infinite, while your funds are not.

Comments and questions welcome.