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Crypto traders take profit early and let their losers run...

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I have seen enough ^.^
Crypto traders especially bulls obviously take profit early.
Crypto traders let their losers run.
Crypto traders argue with every one that has a different view than them, regardless of their track record, regardless of their arguments (check the comments in my bearish Bitcoin ideas calling trans-fee exchanges wash trading poinzi's or Tether a huge price pumping ponzi scam surrounded by criminals).
They also look for the magic indicator all the time, they "scale in buy more average down buy the dip" (add to their losers).
They risk money they can't afford to lose because "it's absolutely delusional to think Bitcoin can go to 1500$ let alone 3 digits".
They ignore the news ("it's just noise it's just FUD").
They are "diversifying" "to decrease risk" by buying ... different crypto's, that are all correlated and increase their risk.
They don't trade off fundamental or economic data, "it's just FUD and noise price will go up and 3000 was the bottom because reasons".
They trade without a plan, just based on "gut feeling" and "something they saw" (remember when MPC changed his mind 10 times about bullish/bearish in November to March because of the "latest indicator or fractal" that he saw? He got a donation of 60$ back in december and withdrew it within 1 hour... Doesn't scream successful...)
They have no max risk rule. 2% a trade and 5% a month max risk? Hell no. They are down 30% and will "average down" and risk their entire lifesaving. 0 rule.

And here, I made the top 10 list of beginner traders biggest mistakes. Any legit site/book or even trader with experience will give you approximately the same list.

I did not make up anything in this list it's all verifiable, crypto "investors" or whatever we should call them, make all these mistakes, very easilly verifiable.
Well unless they lie and pretend to be dumb... Then it is harder to verify but I doubt they are all pretending to be thick on purpose.

I thought it would be interesting to make this list.

Anyway, since this market is dominated by noobs - including funds (you really think Sergeant Pompliano is a genius with his 2 years of crypto only permabull experience even if he lies in his posts he's still bad and what about the funds that lost 75%?) - we can expect mistakes of noobs to dictate price action.
And for the past year+ it has been this way. Price levels got overcut all the time. 6000 that every one is expecting will be overcut, because every one is expecting it...
Well 3000 got overcut too. May 2018 top was 9950 right below 10k. I forgot but I remember most of the time this happening.
Bulls will take profit early, and tell every one how smart they are before giving it all up by adding to their losers and remaining silent.

Can we call this fundamental based? :D

Might want to wait till monday to make sure the price does not go further. And well that's when CME opens and every one can trade it.
I have to get verified on Kraken again. I don't like CME. Closed on the week end really? But with eu brokers we have negative balance protection.
On Kraken I assume risk is unlimited.
Can't use Bitmex because scam and funding. Why do I even bother. There is no simple way to short Crimecoin. Only short term works or fees kill.
With someone that has limited risk. But those have big disadvantages. Is it even worth it? EU broker have negative balance protection but also you get margin called at 50% so you need twice the money and have to risk twice as much if something big happens... So dumb. But I'm 66% sure the price will retrace here and RR is >1,5.
The additional risk caused by idiotic rules and no simple way to short Bitcoin is worth it with odds this good.

I shorted a bit already a tiny bit. Can scale in 5700-6000 area, or go all at once at 5800.

評論

Checking youtube and twitter in 2013-2015 is very instructive.
It's the exact same story as today, the EXACT same.
I think alot of bears removed their posts.
I won't. If we go to 500$ then up again and morons harass me tell me I am wrong, they could be ONE BILLION I would not care, they are idiots. Lmao if we go down to 500$ then up then it's exactly what I said would happen and I am right (well not exactly idk if bottom will be 1600ish 1k 750$ 500$ 300$ and 2 digits is not impossible)

I doubt there were no bears in 2014.

Alot of posts and comments are still around.
Plenty of self proclaimed experts & just bulls in general making dumb bottom calls and being wrong again and again.

2014 was "this time we won't sell the bottom we will HODL"
420 was definitely the bottom, then 420 was confirmed as double bottom, then 350 was bototm "because" then 350 was the bottom because inverted head and shoulders then 350 was the double bottom, then 290 the weak hands got shaken out we needed one more leg down this was the bottom, then yep 300$ was the triple bottom very solid see I told you, then 250 was very very strong bottom not just dead cat bounce, then we went to 150$ and every one sold.

This time 2018 "we won't sell the bottom we will HODL"
11000 was the bottom but no, 6000 was the bottom, then 6000 was the double bottom, then ah 6000 is triple bottom very very strong support, then 3000 was definitely the bottom the bull market started. More to come :) 1800 will 100% be the bottom this time.

Same old story...

評論

I checked previous week ends, tagged saturdays here, and alot goes on on weekends sometimes.

Shorting on Kraken = big wicks, unlimited risk, nono.
Shorting on Bitmex = 1 million percent funding a day.

The only solution I see, for europeans:
- Short sell on the CME via a broker with negative balance protection.
- Buy trades on Kraken or Bitmex or Coinbase or Bitstamp or Gemini.
- If short and market is closed, a 247 crypto exchange can be used to close that short by buying, easy.

The lame part: leverage is limited, so that's alot of money put aside for Bitcoin only... Going for 20% moves thought, Only need 10% of the account for 2% risk (*2 leverage 5% on each).

交易進行

Sent a few hundreds to a broker via credit card & already persuaded I am going to never see them again. I want to be overly optimistic again it feels good. Dammit.
It does feel good to know that my risk with that broker is limited thought.
I think what annoys me is I am starting to have multiple positions. I should cap it at 5 or even less idk. Even 5 feels like alot. 3 max?

Of course I am a huge idiot for shorting Bitcoin now that it is in a massive bull market road to 1 million, but if I showed this chart to the bulls without telling them what it is for, do you think they would buy? :)