Bitcoin (BTC) • Bulls be careful out there. It might get ugly!

已更新

Bitcoin is currently widely claimed as back to the bull market by popular youtubers that are calling the bottom and that are 100% long. On top of that we have a bubble popping out with a boom of Glassnode analysts selling millions of newsletters with in-chain data that everyone sees. "Institutions are buying/accumulating"

This is alarming to me.

I tend to believe that Price (and volumes) is truth.
That is why I'm also a big of Friedrich Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" where he notes the importance of the Price System in a decentralised network.

Bitcoin still trading bellow the 47k range and above 35k which to me signal we are in neutral territory. But I have reason to change my stance and become more bearish because of weird price action and volumes coming out of spot and forward contract futures.

Check the video for my latest thoughts and remember that his is all my subjective interpretation.
Use information in the video to help develop your own critical around these things.
It's not about being contrarian or just follow what everyone (including me) says but to arm yourself with mental models.
Navigate trough uncertainty or probability and develop your own thesis and sub-consequent plan.

註釋

OK - I changed my mind. Been looking into orderbooks and spot volumes. I do not think we are in a bull trap anymore. Sure we may see some pullback at 48k but I also now see the possibility to see a 47-49k range consolidation as shorts pile in.

Swaps been surprising trending more negative which implies bullishness.

So. I think I made mistake in this video's assessment of volumes speically on CME/BAKKT.

Those volumes are very low and are more likely to actually be speculative longs.