I will try to be more objective in this TA, although I am still leaning towards . Below I have provided the reasons behind the and scenario and how I would trade for the two scenarios:
On the side:
1.First and most importantly, we are still inside of the . The price pump in the last few days were mainly caused by short squeeze. Yes, there were some big orders, but it might be because the whales want to pump the price to create short squeeze and refuel their BTC for the incoming dump. And then buy it back cheap.
2. BTC is in this upward flag, the breakdown is likely. If BTC does break the upward flag to the downside, then we will need to see how BTC reacts to the $7.6k, $7.2k, $6.8 & $6.4k . If those levels don’t hold, then $4.4k is definitely on the cards.
3.On the 1, 2, 3, 4 & 6 hour chart, are all showing divergence, price is going higher high while is going lower high
4.In terms of the 4hr , just when BTC is about to having a crossover, it got rejected hard. This could mean that the sell pressure is still there. On the daily , it is still below 0, so technically a buy signal is not confirmed until the daily goes above 0.
5.Similarities between 2014 and 2018. I am not saying it will definitely play out because fractals will end at some point. However, I do think it is worth mentioning about the similarities. The bots still work the same way applying the same/similar logic. I can see people having 3 main arguments towards the 2014 price action continue playing out. 1. The market cap now is much bigger compare to 2014. Well, if the market cap is much bigger now, doesn’t it mean that the whales have more proportion of the market cap now than back in 2014 as they have been making more and more profits since the crash in 2014 and the 2018 crash? 2. The crash in 2014 was caused by Mt Gox hack. Well, who says that it won’t happen again? You already saw on the 6th March how easy it is for the whales to manipulate the market. 3. Timescale. Fractals are repetitive patterns that play out on different levels. If you look at the chart below which I overlay the 2014 chart on top of 2018, you can notice the similarities between the two. And, if you compare the timescale, the 2018 is almost exactly 3 times faster than the one in 2014.
6.Sentiment – people now talks about that the market is strong and start FOMOing. Have you not just been through the crash that happened months ago? Everybody was so positive back in Dec 17 calling the moon and lambo, then what happened? Sentiment can change any second with one single news or event. And what makes you so confident that the bottom is in? People are so confident now only because the price is going up. They said – “I wish I have bought BTC when it was 6k or 6.4k or whatever price” Really? You would? You said that because you already knew the price has already gone up. What if it didn’t? Wouldn’t you say – “I wish I didn’t buy BTC at 6k. I could have bought it at 4.4k”. It’s simple psychology. So, stop FOMOing and wait for confirmation.
7.The price has been going up every day for the last several days. You can’t even see that in a bull run. Plus, when the price went down it always happen before the new day starts. So, every day shows green. That looks quite manipulated to me.
On the side:
1. If either the 0.786 retrace ($7230.5) or 0.886 retrace ($6655.5) can hold, and rebounce, that's a buy signal. These 2 levels are quit a . Plus, the 0.886 retrace is also at the bottom of the gigantic triangle in black.
2. On daily , if goes above 0. It is also a technical buy signal
3. Sentiment. Many people are now . If there is no panick/no bad news. People are going to HODL
4. If the number of short contracts are still high, the bears might as well just start a new bull run
On the bearish side, I would open my short positions when:
1. BTC gets rejected by the daily EMA200 and/or the top of the downtrend channel. You can see that the EMA200 is now converging with the top of the downtrend channel. So, that should be a very strong resistance.
2. BTC has tried a few attempts to break above the blue trendline (around $8450) that connects the low on the 15th Sep and 6th Feb, and got rejected. BTC might have another attempt to break above the trendline and if it gets rejected again and starts to drop, I will then open my shorts with SL right above the trendline.
3. Then I will take profits at each support level, $7230, $6656, $6000 & ultimate target at $4400.
On the bullish side, I would enter my long positions when:
1. Breakout of downtrend channel is confirmed, and ideally retested.
2. BTC goes above the high on the 21st March @ $9177.5
3. If BTC retraces back to the bottom of the gigantic triangle in black @ $6655 and confirming it as a support
4. 1.272 retrace @ $4436
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
Just to provide a possibility that there might another leg up to test the top of the downtrend line @ $8560.
If BTC gets above $9177.5, BTC will be making a higher high which probably means the start of a new bull run.
4.4k is still my ultimate target.
If you would like to know more, go and check @chewner 's latest TA.
If it breaks to the upside, I expect another short squeeze happening as I believe there is quite a few SL set around $9.2k - $9.3k for short positions. If this happens, BTC might go up to $10.5k.
If it breaks to the downside, I would expect BTC to correct to around the 8-8.5k price level. And if this happens, whether BTC will go straight to 4.4k from 8k, will have to be assessed once BTC hits the 8k price level.