Multi-Timeframe: Range, Accumulation Opportunity on Pullbacks

8月4日

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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• Overall Momentum: Dominant bullish trend above 4H. Short-term momentum shifts bearish on 2H/1H/30min, warrants caution.
  
• Key Supports: 114,000 USDT (short term), 111,900 USDT (major pivot), 98,200 USDT (structural failure if lost).
  
• Critical Resistances: 115,900 / 118,900 / 119,900 USDT, daily pivot high 122,318 USDT.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Bullish confirmation on most higher timeframes.
  
• ISPD DIV: Behavioural indicators neutral across all frames, no extreme signals (no panic or euphoria).
  
• Volume: Normal overall, with isolated yellow bars signaling recent volatility spikes.
  
• Multi-timeframe: Higher timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H) remain bullish. Lower timeframes (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min) show short-term downside momentum without systemic panic.
  

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Strategic Summary
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• Main Bias: Bullish structure so long as 111,900 USDT holds. “Buy-the-dip” on pullbacks, tactical range approach below 115,900 USDT.
  
• Opportunities: Scalping on key supports (113,000–114,000 USDT), accumulation on deep test of 111,900 USDT, adaptive exits at major resistances.
  
• Risks Zones: Clear break of 111,900 USDT opens the way to a deeper corrective move, potentially to 105,000–110,000 USDT.
  
• Macro Catalysts: FED on hold, ETF outflows, ongoing geo/trade war risks, US job stats uncertainties; to be monitored.
  
• Action Plan: Adjust position size to intraday volatility, strict stop-loss below 111,800 USDT, firm monitoring of ETF flows, on-chain trends, and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1. 1D - Daily: Bullish trend until 111,900 USDT fails on close. Volume and behaviourals neutral.
   
2. 12H / 6H / 4H: Range trading dominant. Pivots cluster in 114,700–116,000 USDT.
   
3. 2H / 1H: Short-term bearish bias (MTFTI Down), increased risk of flush below 113,000 USDT; patience required for exhaustion or seller reversal.
   
4. 30min / 15min: Volatility up, no behavioural extremes detected. Key watch on breaks below 113,000 USDT.
   
5. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Confirms bullish bias on higher frames (>4H), momentary loss of bullish momentum on short-term (30min–2H).
   
6. Summary: 111,900 USDT is the prime protection node; above = bullish. Below = risk of corrective extension. No current panic detected.
   

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Macro & Bitcoin – Twitter Synthesis & Fundamental Insights
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• Macro: Mixed global sentiment, ongoing US-China trade tensions, persistent geopolitical volatility, equities and crypto under pressure but no systemic break yet. FED in wait-and-see, next big pivot in September.
  
• BTC: Technical & on-chain accumulation at major supports, ETF outflows by retail but institutional accumulation, significant liquidations but no outright panic.
  
• On-chain: 97% of BTC supply in profit, risk of distribution on overextended rallies, STH cost basis support intact ($105–117k zone).
  
• Strategy: Base scenario = buy deep pullbacks, exit prudently at resistance, monitor ETF flows & macro headlines for tactical adjustment.
  

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Practical Conclusion & Recommendations
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• Underlying trend remains bullish, extension likely if 111,900 USDT holds.
  
• Monitor: volume/sell capitulation, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, ETF flows.
  
• Maintain strict risk management, adapt tactics to range volatility.
  
• Avoid excessive leverage, keep tactical intraday flexibility as microstructure is volatile.
  

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8月4日

交易進行

MACRO + BTC ROUNDUP

-US data (factory orders, PMI, jobless claims) stoking Fed rate cut bets, weighing on USD.
-Oil dumped after OPEC+ production hike; Brent drops below $70, pressure on inflation outlook.
-China tightens mineral exports, amping up global supply chain risks.
-Geopolitics heat up: more Ukraine sanctions, Iran currency changes, US-India-Russia oil standoff.
-Bitcoin bounces to $115k after -3% dip; $110k support being tested, whales accumulating.
-Metaplanet adds 463 BTC, now holds 17,595 BTC ($2B) – sign of strong institutional conviction.
-Network sees big transfers, plus $14.5B BTC theft from old mining pool stirs security worries.
-Sentiment split: bulls target $123k–148k, but late-cycle nerves and profit-taking setting in.

Sentiment: Bullish with caution on late-cycle risk.