BTC/USD: Corrective Probabilities and CME Gaps 1H (Aug. 06)

2020年8月5日

X Force Global Analysis:


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In this analysis, we explore BItcoin's corrective probabilities referencing the Bitcoin CME Futures chart.

Analysis

- To begin with, we have formed a double bottom on the hourly, and are breaking out to potentially retest 12k regions
- However, counting Elliott Corrective Waves (ABC), the corrective scenario could still be in play
- We had 5 gaps in total, leading up to our initial test of 12k regions.
- The gap resistance on 11.7k has been filled, while 4 other gaps remain below current price levels
- It's important to take into consideration the fact that not all gaps get filled.
- However, it's also important to take note of the fact that 4 out of 5 gaps (especially major gaps) not being filled is highly improbable

Market Sentiment:

Long short ratios are at 70 to 30, with significantly more long positions than short positions. This could be concerning, considering the bearish technicals suggested above.

What We Believe

We believe that time will prove the time and degree of the corrective wave. Based on the liquidity theory, bears would want to supply as much liquidity in the market, inducing bullish reactions from traders, in order to maximize their short positions and optimize their entries.

Let us know what you think in the comment section below


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