We are moving in a quite extended falling wedge, so there are some signs that there are not enough sellers yet. A correction up may happen soon.
I expect this bounce to be short lived though, as we entered a full bear market by crashing through $6000 level recently. There is also a quite high long interest, which is interesting at these levels.
But it's not safe to short at these levels, especially when we are approaching the $3200 support.
I think it is quite safe to short at $4100 - $4400 levels though, with a stop loss just above $4500.
For the long term view, I think we will stay in $3000 - $4500 range for a while. No need to hurry to get in a position. 200 weekly MA is still holding, which is a huge support too. A slow accumulation at these levels may be not a bad idea, if this range survives upcoming months. But a big capitulation candle is something that must be taken into account. If this happens, then may the gods be with us - we can see levels down to $1200. There is a high chance that it will be just a wick though. 200 weekly MA will act as a resistance in this case and the bear market may last much longer.
Thanks for your attention, and please excuse my grammar, I'm not a native English speaker :)
I expect this bounce to be short lived though, as we entered a full bear market by crashing through $6000 level recently. There is also a quite high long interest, which is interesting at these levels.
But it's not safe to short at these levels, especially when we are approaching the $3200 support.
I think it is quite safe to short at $4100 - $4400 levels though, with a stop loss just above $4500.
For the long term view, I think we will stay in $3000 - $4500 range for a while. No need to hurry to get in a position. 200 weekly MA is still holding, which is a huge support too. A slow accumulation at these levels may be not a bad idea, if this range survives upcoming months. But a big capitulation candle is something that must be taken into account. If this happens, then may the gods be with us - we can see levels down to $1200. There is a high chance that it will be just a wick though. 200 weekly MA will act as a resistance in this case and the bear market may last much longer.
Thanks for your attention, and please excuse my grammar, I'm not a native English speaker :)
評論:
BTC shows first signs of trying to break up. But it needs to break the first $3600 - $3700 resistance. Otherwise, we may see a very boring sideways action, followed by... who knows what actually. The volume is desperately low, so low that it is almost impossible to tell anything.
評論:
And the signs metioned above are - breakout with more like sideways move, with bullish divergence on RSI.
評論:
評論:
And there we have it :) very nice bounce, a textbook falling wedge pattern closing.
We can just wait now, if the price will be able to attack resistance at $4100.
We can just wait now, if the price will be able to attack resistance at $4100.