BItcoin V Shape Low Attempt, 45K Key Resistance zone
已更新
Things are looking decent now, stable so far, even though stock market shit the bed at the start of the day AND after the USA markets closed (probably all games of shaking out bull and bears).
Anyway, here that channel once again with all the shitty false signals. We are closing in again, so what i then try to do is, find what worked last time and what caused failure. With that info trying to find out what we need to see this time.
First time at 1, we can see that part A was successful (move inside the channel) but the breakout (C) was a failure.
Second attempt at 2, it failed at the first step inside the channel (B). Where instead of making a rally much sooner it went sideways for a long time.
So, this time, what we want to see (in a bullish version), is the follow.
Seeing something similar as move A, preferably a bit stronger (more convincing), then sideways a little bit and THEN really pump at the breakout of the channel (where it failed at "1 C" a month ago.
This version, would then give us a V shape low and would then also mean that my expectation of seeing a bottom formation for a month or 2 (yellow line version i showed past weeks), is probably wrong. I see this only happen if the stock markets start a real recovery coming week and the next.
Past month or so, I talked about me being bearish on the stock market (in general) especially since it's known the FED will officially increase the interest rates this year. The biggest problem since this news was, it seemed as if Bitcoin was looking for an excuse to drop a lot, each time the US stock market showed the smallest drop. This fact made predicting the crypto market pretty random. The past weeks it was pretty extreme, crypto was dropping very big almost every second the stock market was making the tiniest drop.
Now 2 days ago, when Bitcoin made it's low, there was a very clear change. BTC was at the lows maybe 5/6 hours while the US stock market was continuing to dump very big. Until now, this seems to have been the trend change in this. So you could even say that Bitcoin predicted the direction, at least until now. The US indices, have shown 2 very bullish daily candles in a row now, so normally it should continue to go up coming week, but it's not a sure thing, especially because later today we have the FED's monthly meeting. Because lately the FED is playing the biggest factor in everything, it doesn't matter what the chart says, it will all depend on what the market does based on what the FED says.
So what do i expect the markets will do coming days? The setup for crypto and stock market is there to make a big recovery rally. One thing is clear to me, for a very bullish V shape recovery, there is little room for hesitation. The chart below is an illustration of what I mean:
For a V shape scenario, we need a strong pump today, I don’t even think there is room to wait until tomorrow. So this then means the FED meeting has to give a bullish reaction. So the yellow lines are the V shape recovery ones, the red lines are the hesitation versions and will very likely mean that later this week or the next we come back down to the lows again.
BTC and DOW both have very similar resistances. For the DOW we need to see 35Kish break later today to keep the V shape version alive and for BTC this is around 40/40.5K. As mentioned a few days ago, for Bitcoin, the KEY resistance for me is around 45K. Only if this resistance breaks, I can start to think the bear trend (since the 69K high) might be over. Until then, chances for a drop (or retest of the lows remains). For the Dow this similar level is around 35.5/7K.
Something I wrote a few days ago:
“ Even though chances for btc are small that the low is set and that we pump above 45k within a week. But if there is a way for it to happen, it’s if the stock market does yet another crazy rally in these crazy times. My view on stock market is known, I am bearish. However, I do know, since this market is completely insane, that yet another short squeeze rally (new ATH’s), is always likely. But I am quite sure, that end of 2022, we will have a negative year. Whether it’s just -5/10% or 50%, that I don’t dare to say. But I am quite sure it will be negative. Only thing that can change it, is the FED changing their mind on raising interest. Then it could be postponed another year or so. “
So unless all of a sudden inflation disappears and the FED changes it’s mind on raising interest rates, it will be a matter of time until we really drop. Where past weeks was just a small taste of what could come. We dropped big, but there was huge panic selling yet. In the meantime, anything can happen, especially with the stock market. Common knowledge tells me it’s impossible to see a new ATH for the stock market again, but experience of past 2 years proves that even the most bullish predictions can be considered way too modest.
So in short, think today is a very important. If it becomes very bullish, then there is a serious chance for a V shape recovery and we can become bullish again for the coming weeks. If it fails, chances for a correctional zone between like 32/43k for several weeks becomes more likely. Obviously, a much more bearish scenario is also still a realistic scenario if we see a big sell off again. Think for Bitcoin it’s important to see 33/32K zone hold for at least a a few weeks, to prevent a disaster.
Anyway, here that channel once again with all the shitty false signals. We are closing in again, so what i then try to do is, find what worked last time and what caused failure. With that info trying to find out what we need to see this time.
First time at 1, we can see that part A was successful (move inside the channel) but the breakout (C) was a failure.
Second attempt at 2, it failed at the first step inside the channel (B). Where instead of making a rally much sooner it went sideways for a long time.
So, this time, what we want to see (in a bullish version), is the follow.
Seeing something similar as move A, preferably a bit stronger (more convincing), then sideways a little bit and THEN really pump at the breakout of the channel (where it failed at "1 C" a month ago.
This version, would then give us a V shape low and would then also mean that my expectation of seeing a bottom formation for a month or 2 (yellow line version i showed past weeks), is probably wrong. I see this only happen if the stock markets start a real recovery coming week and the next.
Past month or so, I talked about me being bearish on the stock market (in general) especially since it's known the FED will officially increase the interest rates this year. The biggest problem since this news was, it seemed as if Bitcoin was looking for an excuse to drop a lot, each time the US stock market showed the smallest drop. This fact made predicting the crypto market pretty random. The past weeks it was pretty extreme, crypto was dropping very big almost every second the stock market was making the tiniest drop.
Now 2 days ago, when Bitcoin made it's low, there was a very clear change. BTC was at the lows maybe 5/6 hours while the US stock market was continuing to dump very big. Until now, this seems to have been the trend change in this. So you could even say that Bitcoin predicted the direction, at least until now. The US indices, have shown 2 very bullish daily candles in a row now, so normally it should continue to go up coming week, but it's not a sure thing, especially because later today we have the FED's monthly meeting. Because lately the FED is playing the biggest factor in everything, it doesn't matter what the chart says, it will all depend on what the market does based on what the FED says.
So what do i expect the markets will do coming days? The setup for crypto and stock market is there to make a big recovery rally. One thing is clear to me, for a very bullish V shape recovery, there is little room for hesitation. The chart below is an illustration of what I mean:
For a V shape scenario, we need a strong pump today, I don’t even think there is room to wait until tomorrow. So this then means the FED meeting has to give a bullish reaction. So the yellow lines are the V shape recovery ones, the red lines are the hesitation versions and will very likely mean that later this week or the next we come back down to the lows again.
BTC and DOW both have very similar resistances. For the DOW we need to see 35Kish break later today to keep the V shape version alive and for BTC this is around 40/40.5K. As mentioned a few days ago, for Bitcoin, the KEY resistance for me is around 45K. Only if this resistance breaks, I can start to think the bear trend (since the 69K high) might be over. Until then, chances for a drop (or retest of the lows remains). For the Dow this similar level is around 35.5/7K.
Something I wrote a few days ago:
“ Even though chances for btc are small that the low is set and that we pump above 45k within a week. But if there is a way for it to happen, it’s if the stock market does yet another crazy rally in these crazy times. My view on stock market is known, I am bearish. However, I do know, since this market is completely insane, that yet another short squeeze rally (new ATH’s), is always likely. But I am quite sure, that end of 2022, we will have a negative year. Whether it’s just -5/10% or 50%, that I don’t dare to say. But I am quite sure it will be negative. Only thing that can change it, is the FED changing their mind on raising interest. Then it could be postponed another year or so. “
So unless all of a sudden inflation disappears and the FED changes it’s mind on raising interest rates, it will be a matter of time until we really drop. Where past weeks was just a small taste of what could come. We dropped big, but there was huge panic selling yet. In the meantime, anything can happen, especially with the stock market. Common knowledge tells me it’s impossible to see a new ATH for the stock market again, but experience of past 2 years proves that even the most bullish predictions can be considered way too modest.
So in short, think today is a very important. If it becomes very bullish, then there is a serious chance for a V shape recovery and we can become bullish again for the coming weeks. If it fails, chances for a correctional zone between like 32/43k for several weeks becomes more likely. Obviously, a much more bearish scenario is also still a realistic scenario if we see a big sell off again. Think for Bitcoin it’s important to see 33/32K zone hold for at least a a few weeks, to prevent a disaster.
註釋
Short term, this parabolic shape is something to watch. Normally, BTC needs to pump upwards from it to keep the V shape version intact as described above. So yellow line. There is a possible backup plan, the green line, would mean staying above 37Kish. If we make a fast drop below 37K chances become much smaller. If you remember what i said a few days ago:
" For now, basic resistance is around 38/39 with a max of 40k. If we are super bearish, price will go up max 38, maybe 39. So reaching 40k would be a small sign that maybe the low is closing in.
Breaking 40/41k, would be a small/decent win. Until this happens, no need at all to think about bullish outcomes coming periods.
I think THE resistance is around 45k. If that one breaks, doesn’t mean bull straight away. But would give it a very big chance that the low is set "
This also still stands, really do not want to see 38/39K being the max of this move up, because that would show a lot of weakness and fear.
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