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Potential bottom at 5600

已更新

Bitcoin lost the uptrend after a triple reversal from ~ 6850. At the same time, bitcoin gradually lost its positions in the channels (BB, KC, DC): could not hold onto the upper bands, slowed down a bit near the middle bands, but eventually broke down the lower bands - and reached the point ~ 5930. At the moment, we see that bitcoin has gradually returned to L/BB, but still did not fix above L/KC(20;2).

Let us analyze further possible movements!

1) At the 4H time frame: After breaking down the lower bands of the channels (BB, KC, DC) - bitcoin made a small rebound upward. So far, this rebound does not show a clear reversal - most likely it's just an attempt to "cooldown" the overheated TIs, by reaching to a level of ~6150-6250. This is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-107 (positive trend to back test -100), %R=-78, DMI=34 (+DI < -DI). Nevertheless, EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26.

2) At the daily time frame: After translational fixing of the day candles above L / KC (2, 1.5, 1 mult to ATR) - bitcoin never fixed near the middle band. Therefore, we reached the lower predicted point L/BB ~5900. In general, the daily chart shows pressure down, and it is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-114 (negative trend), %R=-87, DMI=45 (+DI < -DI). Also down projection due to EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26.

Conclusion: analysis shows that today bitcoin might reach L/KC (20; 1.5) ~ 6250. On the other hand, the downward daily pressure indicates to EMA100 ~ 5650. It is possible that on Saturday and Sunday, bitcoin might not make any attempts (neither up nor down), in order to start the movement from Monday.

Nevertheless, my long is now open on the weekly EMA91 ~5930, and the second long is waiting for EMA100 ~5650 (if 5930 would be broken it might be good to open quick short with target at 5650). TP is on the weekly SMA/EMA60 ~7000.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

註釋

Bitcoin lost the uptrend after touching 4H U/KC (20;1) ~6330, and after a series of "rejections" at 4H SMA30 and daily EMA9, and now closed below M/KC ~6200 but above 4H EMA12.

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) At 4H time frame: After a powerful jump from ~5770 bitcoin slowed down at 4H M/KC, and further momentum was sufficient only to U/KC (20;1). Perhaps the current decline is just a back-test to "cooldown" the overheated TIs. In this case, all 4Hs should close above M/BB ~6130 (below M/BB is my SL ~6125 for long 5930). Since bitcoin closed below M/KC ~ 6200, this increased the probability of a downward movement, because this is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-57 (negative trend), %R=-22, DMI=21 (+DI < -DI). On the other hand EMA6 > EMA9 > EMA12, as well as SMA10 > SMA20 - but the projections indicate that the situation might change to negative.

2) At the daily time frame: After step-by-step fixation of the daily candles above L/KC (2, 1.5 mult to ATR) - bitcoin is below L/KC (20; 1). In general, there is a neutral process on the daily chart, and this is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-82 (positive trend), %R=-58 (neutral), DMI=48 (ADX on the bearish trend, +DI < -DI). Also, EMA6 < EMA9 < EMA12 < EMA26.

Conclusion: The analysis shows that today bitcoin might reach 4H M/DC ~ 6050, or make a deep back-test to 4H L/BB ~ 5850 (in case if the price would close below 4H M/BB ~6130). On the other hand, if 4H M/BB ~6130 holds - then the bulls can take the initiative to U/KC (20; 1.5) and U/BB ~6400.

P.S. Also in brief updates I wrote my macro look, and now I will duplicate it here:

Since 2015, the monthly candle has never closed below M/KC (aka EMA20) and below M/BB (aka SMA20). Monthly SMA / EMA20 are in an uptrend. Now, monthly M/KC ~5800-5900 and monthly M / BB ~5100-5200. Therefore, "quick touch" is possible below these monthly EMA20 and SMA20. But the candle should close above the mentioned MAs, or we will have long-term problems with bitcoin. At a certain glance, this model corresponds to ~ 4900-5100 on a weekly time frame: L/KC (20;2), L/BB (expands) and SMA91.

Good luck to all!

手動結束交易

Quick update at 4H time-frame.

As it was mentioned in the previous analysis: "...the current decline is just a back-test to "cooldown" the overheated TIs. In this case, all 4Hs should close above M/BB ~6130 (below M/BB is my SL ~6125 for long 5930)..."

So, we have reached M/BB, triggered my SL, and then jumped up to M/KC with rejection. TIs indicate more probability to go down, of course if M/BB would be broken - then it would open road down to 4H M/DC ~ 6050, or make a deep back-test to 4H L/BB ~ 5850-5900.

But now I am also watching 4H SMA30, as bitcoin is hardly pushed down by this MA. And M/BB (aka SMA20) is going to cross with SMA30 - showing us probable way of breakthrough.

To make it brief: opened long at 5930, closed it with trailing stop at 6125.