Hi guys! such a manipulated market, now is! i have been trading of course, not writing for a while. very important day, since bitfinex maintenance coming up, we never know where the movement would go. for now, i think upside movement for bulls is valid only until october 8~9th, they have chance to go over 7k. if they fail we will see a crush downwards, which will not look good.
this is the daily chart here. we keep getting caught on bear div at 6800, coming down not winning over it. the problem is bulls had a good chance for upside movement at sep 30th, and october 1st, but they lost their chance! the ichimoku clouds were thin then,however they got resisted by the downtrend lines. now btc candle confirmed a black crow candle pattern, which, is NOT GOOD!
normally, at black crow candle patterns, it confirms it and show some upside movement after that. the bulls have some chance until october 8~9th, which is only 3~4days from now. if they manage to stay above 6500/6600, they still have some chance, but if they get crumbled downside it will be dangerous. we risk going to low 6k or under then.
so the point of the game is october 8~9th. if we stay below 66/65, you need to sell all your positions.
if we do stay above these levels, we need to see if we manage to break above the downtrend line to 67/68, if that does not happen it is also a sign of downwards movement. so check lines at this chart, we might see heavy movement either to up, or down.
6100 double bottom effect is over for now, it is not powerful enough to sustain this price now. money flow, is at its top levels, showing bearish divergence. problem i see is that, monthly 20MA is now at 6400. bulls CANNOT go below that level, a moving average that has kept BTC bullish for over 3 years now. so, in order to shoot higher, they need to hit bottom, make healthy retracement, but THEY CANNOT DO THAT! because that would mean bearishness! so price tightens, no strength...which, might lead to heavy drop, unless the whales show confidence and push really high at very short period.
NO MINGLING AROUND 64~66 IS ALLOWED NOW FOR BULLS, they need to shoot higher then 6800 to regain bullishness!
weekly basis, 21/50 ema deadcross still in play, and, if we close below 6570 on october 8th, that will confirm a black crow candle pattern, which will be VERY bearish. we are still maintaining a falling wedge pattern, which can take us to 5k.
today, with a spurt to 6640/6650, we almost touched the resistance line. we need to push higher unless we risk big drop.
for today, trading is very risky, shorts and longs altogether because of the maintenance of bitfinex. we would get final confirmation of the market in coming days, at 8th~9th, if we go long or go short. before then, scalping can work, but do not risk swing trade. for now, bearish market overall in indicators tell that we would see a heavy drop, but anything can change.
the most important time for btc nearing! i wish that btc finally escapes the bear market. it is really making me a paranoid, for staying in this trading range for too long. lets hope this bear market is done this month.
trading plans are
1. open short
i have already opened shorts at 6613(bitmex), i would stoploss this at same price if btc comes up high.
do not open at 65 levels now.
2. open longs
6500/6520 for scalping.
-->i will update in comments for trading short term short/longs.
happy trading!
this is the daily chart here. we keep getting caught on bear div at 6800, coming down not winning over it. the problem is bulls had a good chance for upside movement at sep 30th, and october 1st, but they lost their chance! the ichimoku clouds were thin then,however they got resisted by the downtrend lines. now btc candle confirmed a black crow candle pattern, which, is NOT GOOD!
normally, at black crow candle patterns, it confirms it and show some upside movement after that. the bulls have some chance until october 8~9th, which is only 3~4days from now. if they manage to stay above 6500/6600, they still have some chance, but if they get crumbled downside it will be dangerous. we risk going to low 6k or under then.
so the point of the game is october 8~9th. if we stay below 66/65, you need to sell all your positions.
if we do stay above these levels, we need to see if we manage to break above the downtrend line to 67/68, if that does not happen it is also a sign of downwards movement. so check lines at this chart, we might see heavy movement either to up, or down.
6100 double bottom effect is over for now, it is not powerful enough to sustain this price now. money flow, is at its top levels, showing bearish divergence. problem i see is that, monthly 20MA is now at 6400. bulls CANNOT go below that level, a moving average that has kept BTC bullish for over 3 years now. so, in order to shoot higher, they need to hit bottom, make healthy retracement, but THEY CANNOT DO THAT! because that would mean bearishness! so price tightens, no strength...which, might lead to heavy drop, unless the whales show confidence and push really high at very short period.
NO MINGLING AROUND 64~66 IS ALLOWED NOW FOR BULLS, they need to shoot higher then 6800 to regain bullishness!
weekly basis, 21/50 ema deadcross still in play, and, if we close below 6570 on october 8th, that will confirm a black crow candle pattern, which will be VERY bearish. we are still maintaining a falling wedge pattern, which can take us to 5k.
today, with a spurt to 6640/6650, we almost touched the resistance line. we need to push higher unless we risk big drop.
for today, trading is very risky, shorts and longs altogether because of the maintenance of bitfinex. we would get final confirmation of the market in coming days, at 8th~9th, if we go long or go short. before then, scalping can work, but do not risk swing trade. for now, bearish market overall in indicators tell that we would see a heavy drop, but anything can change.
the most important time for btc nearing! i wish that btc finally escapes the bear market. it is really making me a paranoid, for staying in this trading range for too long. lets hope this bear market is done this month.
trading plans are
1. open short
i have already opened shorts at 6613(bitmex), i would stoploss this at same price if btc comes up high.
do not open at 65 levels now.
2. open longs
6500/6520 for scalping.
-->i will update in comments for trading short term short/longs.
happy trading!
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let me clarify this little scalping trading. 1. open long bitfinex(6540~6580), bitmex(6500~6540) 2.target-1 bitfinex(6640), bitmex(6595~6610) target2 bitfinex(6770), bitmex(6680~6720) 3. stoploss 6500(bitfinex), 6460(bitmex). 6640 can be the end of this inverse h&s, let's hope it can go up more. you can sell 40~50% at least at 6640 level. it might just break down, so be careful. very risky trade at the moment.註釋
tradingview.com/x/01ZVRYfq/why is btc in such stagnation? you can see three levels of bottoming/uprise from sep. we had 6100, double bottom, with good bull div. problem is, when we went to 6300 we didn't make a such good bull divergernce, with rsi slightly down. next at 6400 level, we double bottomed but rsi went down more, which indicate not much buyers at even 6400 level. we have the downtrend line right in front of us, i expect a heavy drop next week. but let's see.註釋
tradingview.com/x/T2LGZMZ7/oops sorry. comment above, see this chart.註釋
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oh no wrong again. don't care about the wrong comments and urls's above. for the bull div chart explained above, let me write the same comment once more. why btc in such stagnation? you can see three levels of bottoming/uprise from sep. we had 6100, double bottom, with good bull div. problem is, when we went to 6300 we didn't make a such good bull divergernce, with rsi slightly down. next at 6400 level, we double bottomed but rsi went down more, which indicate not much buyers at even 6400 level. we have the downtrend line right in front of us, i expect a heavy drop next week. but let's see.
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Target reached for longs.target1 6640,target2 is 6770 but bitfinex reached 6740 a little short. I sold my longs at target 1 at 6613,bitmex. Price came back inside the descending triangle lets see now.註釋
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