How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble

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This isn't some FUD spreading pysops. It's more of a reality check. A lot of people are suggesting the market is going to recover (or is even already recovering!!) in a couple of days. It won't. The shortest time frame is one month from now. Imo this raises false expectations, as well as FUD among some people. Just looking at the weekly chart though, it seems that there are basically four routes that bitcoin can take.

  • 1. Green Channel. This is the shortest scenario and should be complete in about 4 to 5 weeks when we bounce up off of the purple trendline . Not much to say here except that obviously this is the best solution for most people who are long on this.
  • 2. Yellow Channel. This will see bitcoin break downward through the 20 week moving average (MA) as well as the uptrend and find support down at the 50 week MA. From here we should bounce up towards the shoulder of the Ichimoku cloud , which will give us bullish momentum. This scenario may be complete by end of May / start of June. So a six month time frame.
  • 3. Orange Channel. Well, obviously no on wants to see this. It will see us disrespect the 50 week MA and fall under the Ichimoku cloud as we make our way to the major trendline (green). Something like this happened once before back in 2015. If this happens it could take a year to return to previous levels. However, there is reason to think that this won't happen this time! Analysis of long-term waves over the entire history of bitcoin suggests that, in the worst case, the correction should follow the Yellow Channel.
  • 4. Red Channel. This is a very extreme scenario and is unlikely to happen at this stage. This would be akin to the tech crash and we are just not there yet. We are starting to see mainstream companies that have no connection to or history with cryptocurrencies co-opting terms such as blockchain in their names and benefiting massively from traditional investors and this to me is indicative of the very early stages of the dotcom mania, but give it a year to run at least.

As always these are just my opinions. I am neither an economist nor a professional trader.
評論: CME futures expire in less than 4 hours. People saying there is no manipulation in these markets are either deluded or shilling. Keep a steady hand.
評論: Coincheck is hacked (400 million USD ??). It's a lot bigger than Mt. Gox was, but BTC market capitalisation is also 100s of times more now. No BTC were taken just XEM.
評論: Strange news about tether today:
Don't know how significant this is, but I used the last of my USDT to buy BTC during the dip. If you have Tether, you should maybe keep an eye on the news or convert to a currency of your choice. Don't trust coindesk or cointelegraph on this.
評論: So 10 years, then? Maybe never.

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