Still bullish

2018年7月21日

So the price of Bitcoin has recently crossed a major resistance of 6800 on high volume, continued up for over 10% gain in a couple of days, then, despite being overbought on all time frames up to 1D went even higher, and finally retraced a little bit and I already see people calling a return of the bear. Did they expect it to go straight up to 10K or a new ATH in a week?

The best thing to do now is try to find a new support level to start scaling into a long. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much to go by. The closest known high liquidity zone is around 6800, but I think that's a bit too low given the momentum we're seeing. All the fast MAs also converge around that area and all the slower ones are above us. So we're left with the fibs.

We've retraced almost perfectly to fib 0.236 level after testing 100 SMA, but I don't expect it to hold much longer as indicated by a bearish Stochastic cross and an engulfing bearish candle on the daily. If we bounced off of this level it would be hyper-bullish, however unlikely. Next stop is around 7070 where past horizontal support aligns almost perfectly with a 0.382 fib retracement. I think this is quite likely scenario and I'll start scaling into a long here. Then we have 0.5 retracement in the 6800 area. This is also likely. I think even going that low and confirming it as support would still be bullish AF.

On the other end we have that 7600 area which is sort of like the new 6800 - i.e. a good place to take profit/hedge/short. Just above there is a strong horizontal resistance at 7800 which pretty much aligns with the iH&S target and, if broken, should takes us straight to 8500.