看多

After Much Thought, Looks Like Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1

已更新

Providing a copy of the chart AGAIN below because Trading View's platform will likely scrunch up the chart; preventing the way it should be depicted.

FIB coordinates are 0 = $2.22 and 100 = $19,666

Here's an image of Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1: i.imgur.com/nOJl0Dd.png

Do NOT assume we will fall into months of bear trend in Phase E as depicted on the image of Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1 above. Even Wyckoff himself said we do not have to fall into Phase E if the laws of Supply and Demand determine we should skip it and fall into another Phase A of a new schematic.

You're welcome to scroll down in this link to find "Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1" to find additional notes about phases and events: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Books by Wyckoff can be found here. However, make sure to scroll down till you see the name, Richard Wyckoff. MANY other books on trading can be found here as well. Excellent source of trading material FREE online: traders-software.com/Trading Books/

An excellent video to start with on teachings for Wyckoff by David H. Weis can be found here: "David Weis on Wyckoff, Support/Resistance , and Waves" - youtube.com/watch?v=uzISUr1itWg&amp=&ytbChannel=BigMikeTrading

I honestly do not see us blowing through 20k into astronomical highs this particular spring upward. That will not begin until mid to late September or early October where we blast to new ATH in the 50K to 70K range in my opinion.

I've been up all night trying to determine what schematic the Composite Group is using/planing. I believe I've found it and simply wanted to share it. This particular plan "I BELIEVE" they have in play will take course over the rest of this year. I will share what my indicators are saying every now and then. Especially, if I see something of significance. I will be VERY busy this weekend until next weekend with a power upgrade from 225 Amps to 400 Amps here at my house and remodeling the mining room.

My current TA implies a LONG position up to the 20K to range. Which is where I believe we're going until end of May/early June where we will consolidate until end of September/early October where we begin our trek upside to a REAL moon shot around 50K to 70K by end of 2018. Political and geopolitical events could change the timing and price points as events play out. Stay tuned...

DISCLAIMER: This post is simply an "IDEA" and I'm by no means responsible for any trades made based on my TA.

Happy Trading!

註釋

The 4-Day TF once again but WITH indicators at the bottom. Got to get some sleep now. Later...

註釋

If my analysis is correct on this being a large Distribution Schematic #1, the price points could "possibly" play out as follows:

These "possible" future price points were determined with FIB's beginning with:
1.) The one up to the top of the "UT" @ $22,533.92 <possibly first week of June>
2.) Then down from $22,533.92 to the 0.5 FIB RT @ $13,588.39 <possibly second week of June>
3.) Slightly recover back up to the 0.23 FIB @ $18,311.63 <possibly fourth week of June>
4.) Then back down further to the 0.618 FIB @ $11,477.25 <by last week of September or first week of October>

註釋

The REASON for the two yellow blocks inside the Phoenix 1.393 indicator is to point out how EASY it would be to go up to 20K in a short period of time. Look at the price action above the smaller yellow box from history and compare that to how much time remains in the larger yellow box to get to a similar or higher price target.

註釋

Take note of ALL YELLOW BOXES in past and present. That means looking at boxes in the top and lower indicators below the chart. The run up in the past BEGAN on Saturday, November 25. It's possible we begin a run up here between now (Thursday) and Saturday.

註釋

The "INITIAL" reason for this publication was to point out which Wyckoff Schematic I believe is unfolding/playing out. I also provided indicators in the 4-Day TF to show "support" for this analysis.

A couple of years ago I created several publications on Loaded Gun Theory (LGT); which is somewhat similar to Elliot Wave but not quite. A pattern was noticed in LGT to provide an APPROXIMATE price target for 1.618 FIB and 0.618 FIB RT on the 4-Day TF for MAJOR Wyckoff "Sprint/Up Thrust" and "Consolidation" events. That pattern for LGT revealed 2-Guns Down for 0.618 FIB RT for bottom of Consolidation events and 3-Guns Down for 1.618 FIB to Peak of Spring/Up Thrust events.

I also found if we have an Up Thrust event of more than 4 times increase in price from previous bottom to new ATH, the "2-Guns Down" rule does not apply for 0.618 FIB RT for bottom of Consolidation Event after new ATH is established. Which means we will NOT have our usual 40 to 50 percent drop from ATH to 0.618 FIB RT. The drop will actually be much more significant after being significantly over-bought.

I spent some time to use the Loaded Gun Theory to provide an "approximate" price target to peak of MAJOR Up Thrust events and the bottom of MAJOR consolidation events from till the end of 2018. Keep in mind these numbers are NOT exact and are only used to get a general idea of what approximate price point(s) we're looking for on those MAJOR events.

This first chart is to provide an over all picture with few details discernible.

This next chart shows more detail of the "3-Guns Down" to determine an APPROXIMATE price point of where we're heading this current trip up for this Wyckoff Up Thrust Event in Phase B of the Schematic.

This next chart shows more detail of the "2-Guns Down" to determine an APPROXIMATE price point of where we're heading down from the NEXT peak at $17,226.15 to the 0.618 FIB RT at the bottom of the consolidation event.

One more chart to show the next 1.618 FIB to the peak of the next Up Thrust event to occur approximately September 1, 2018. This should be enough for you to get an idea of what I was doing.

If you are the curious type and wondering WHERE I came up with the DATES for the peaks and the bottoms of each remaining event, then have a look at this chart from last year. NOTE the dates at the bottom of the chart underneath the vertical time lines:

註釋

For those looking for more "SUPPORT" for my 2-Guns Down for 0.618 FIB RT and 3-Guns Down for 1.618 FIB at peak of Up Thrust, here is a publication on those rules I established in "Loaded Guns Theory" (LGT).

LGT is still a work in progress and requires at least another year to five years in it's development because I need more HISTORY to be created for confirmation and possible development of more rules.

BTCUSD STAMP: Decided to Create a New Publication. The other...

註釋

MANY have sat and watched while we continually go up. They were caught unaware.

We had our decisive tests of remaining supply. Now, “smart money” operators have decided it's to be marked up. The previous drives down has establish a "mental" thought of a continued repetition of the same move. In reality, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates we are likely ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.

The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates this analysis quite easily. However, in Accumulation Schematic #2, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR WITHOUT a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of a change in trend can be hard to identify without also using proper indicators.

註釋

Here is a copy of a response in comments section of another publication to someone who follows me:

I cannot remember if I told you or not but you ought to go to "indicators" and add "Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA - LTCUSD" to your charts. It's a lot like my Phoenix 1.393 on my charts. Also in indicators, type in "Stochastic RSI" and add that to your arsenal. I would do this for each chart you have. If you have questions, post your chart with comments or questions in one of my ideas and I or a knowledgeable follower will provide an answer to your question. You may have to be patient at times because I might be sleeping.

I remember when I first became a member on Trading View years ago. I did not know ANYTHING about trading. I especially, didn't know anything about creating charts and using all the features on the charts. I still don't know how to use all the features yet. Mainly because I have not found a need to learn all of them yet.

Post ideas with your charts as you get more comfortable with creating charts and using indicators. Be open to constructive criticism and welcome others to post their charts and comments in an effort to encourage growth in trading knowledge and to possibly come to a consensus on the idea you posted.

Be defiant against haters and put them in their place. Especially, if such haters don't even take the time themselves to learn or have the balls to expose themselves to the public out of fear of being wrong, criticized or laughed. Simply keep your heart and mind focused on the knowledge and experience you KNOW you will gain over time as long as you continue to put forth effort to learn and share.

WE LEARN BEST BY DOING. So, as NIKE says, "Just Do It."

註釋

After talking with @hkh222 in the comments section of the following publication, I had an epiphany and shared it with hkh.

Bitcoins Big Bears Shakeout Part 2, solving the puzzle again

I wanted to be sure to share it here with those who navigate to this publication as well. Here it is:

I had a look at the 4-Day, 7-Day, 14-Day and 1-Month charts at current location and your 2014 time frame. They do look similar - in regards to my indicators. Then, I had an epiphany. If we go to $11 or $12 thousand and turn back down, this COULD be a sign of an Automatic Rally in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. What would confirm it as being a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic would depend on how far we dropped. If we dropped to only about $5,400 to $5,500 on LOW VOLUME (Just below the trading range), that would be an EXCELLENT SIGNAL we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic instead of a Distribution Schematic as I posted in my most recent publication. If we continue down much further than $5,400, that would be a signal we were in a Distribution Schematic Phase E from the previous ATH of $19,666. Which means we would be looking for the bottom of a selling climax to begin an Accumulation Schematic.

If we continue higher than $12,000 and go on up to $15,00 or higher, this will be a STRONG signal we were in an Up Thrust EVENT of Phase B in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic. Which is what I've posted in my publication.

Bottom line, it all depends on how high we go up between now and June 1st.

註釋

Here's a chart to provide a VISUAL PICTURE of what I intended to convey in my previous post.

Here is an image of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 which is what I made in the chart you see below: i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

Here's an image of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2: i.imgur.com/vJDN6um.png

註釋

My bad, I forgot to add the Abbreviation Definitions:

註釋

Simply posting to show how $17,226.15 is still possible between now and June 6th:

註釋

I wanted to share the 180m (3h) TF to show you this current downward pressure may last up to 18 more hours before we see another significant move to the upside. I thought this was important to share since I said in the previous post with the 360m (6h) TF chart we might see a reversal the next 6h candle about 2 hours from now. This 180m (3h) TF makes me think the wait may be a bit longer:

註釋

Visitors to my ideas,

I have no problem whatsoever with people dropping by to have a look and comment. In fact, I ENCOURAGE IT.

However, if you come here to make a comment or post a chart/idea that differs from and/or agrees with my "opinion," I RESPECTFULLY request you PROVIDE AN EXPLANATION with your chart as to WHY you believe the price action will or will not do as I have suggested in my "opinion."

Posting charts in the comments section with only a short phrase that says, "Really?" and a chart with a few lines drawn with a FIB saying it's doing this or that WITHOUT EXPLANATION as to "WHY" it will do this or that in text bubble(s) with indicators is NOT communicating or TRYING to come to a consensus. All I really gather from such posts is "opinion" WITHOUT SUPPORT. At least that's my "opinion" on such posts in comments section.

註釋

2-Day TF:

3-Day TF:

註釋

Decided to go ahead and include the Daily (1440m) TF and the 4-Day TF:

Here's the Daily TF:

Here's the 4-Day TF:

註釋

Apologies for not being around to warn of the dip. I just woke up. I worked very hard all day yesterday with electricians here at my house while getting an upgrade to 400 Amp service. I honestly wish I was around to provide signals of when the drop was coming and provide possible price points.

Well, obviously, the price did not go up to $10,381. There was too much resistance at $10,000. We'll have another go at 10k again soon for sure.

I have a lot more work to do with my mining room today in order to get my rigs back going after this power upgrade. I have to run 8 x 30 amp circuits and 4 x 20 amp circuits from the new panels at new locations to my mining room. I should be back to providing more trading analysis in the near future.

註釋

Thought I would share what the indicators are signaling in the 240m and 360m TF's before I get back to work with running 12 new circuits to my mining room from new Main Distribution Panels.

註釋

New green text bubble for the 360m (6h) TF:

註釋

Good morning everyone!

NOTE FOR USERS OF "GODMODE 3.1 MOD WITH LSMA" -

I've placed a red vertical time line on the 60m and 120m - if you were using these two TF's to TRY to determine best possible entry back into BTCUSD "IF" you sold at or near the top at approximately $9,755:

I placed the indicator, "Godmode 3.1 Mod With LSMA - LTCUSD" at the top of my 3 indicators at the bottom. This indicator is available to those who have a PRO account.

Now, I want you to see the 180m and 360m TF's side by side WITHOUT EDITING LOCATION OF RED VERTICAL TIME LINES.

You can see if you were using a little bit higher TF's - like the 180m and 360m TF's - to determine best possible entry on the reversal events in the waves during bear and/or bull trends, we might be more timely and accurate in our entry and/or exit WHEN TRADING BTCUSD.

In the following chart, I added a BLUE Vertical Time Line to show the signal you were looking for in the 180m and 360m TF"s to determine entry for this reversal to the upside. Do you see how the Red Line and Blue LSMA were about to touch a Green Line that is moving up; which indicates Up Side?

註釋

One more update before I get back to work in my mining room. I have a LOT of work to do.

Here is the 720m (12h) and 1440m (Daily) TF's with comments in text bubbles:

註釋

Simply giving a thumbs up to someone I follow. ; )

We might go to $8,450 to $8,485 range before taking off.

720m TF:

360m TF with indicators:

180m TF with indicators:

註釋

My bad, forgot to post the link to his idea:

Bitcoin on fire and more to come! Target 11.6k

註釋

Well, the inspector did not make it yesterday to inspect the power upgrade. Will have to wait till Monday for that. Which means I will focus on spending this time on the remodel in the server room for better cooling.

Here's a chart with Phoenix 1.393 on top of the price action. I left Phoenix ARI "Merged" with Stochastic RSI on the bottom.

This 1440m (Daily) Chart is looking back FROM the peak in December:

註釋

Here's a look at a lower TF... The 180m (3h):

註釋

720m TF:

360m TF:

註釋

I did not change the large royal blue text bubble between TF's. It was originally written for the 720m (12h) TF.

Now, I need to get to work with the server room remodel.

Happy trading.

註釋

I never did show the Daily Indicators with comments:

註釋

2-Day TF then I "must" get back to work in the server room. lol...

註釋

I've been SUPER BUSY lately everyone. All kinds of delays with the Inspector and my electrician. I have flex whips running my servers over the weekend to avoid losing revenue. I have several more flex whips to run for fans.

Here is the Daily TF:

註釋

480m (8h) TF:

90m (1.5h) TF:

註釋

I believe the Blue LSMA on the far right in the 360m (6h) TF tells us we have more room to the upside to go. At least one more leg up before a decent consolidation and one more serious move up before our MAJOR consolidation event. This is to take place over the course of the next 3 to 5 weeks.

註釋

The Daily (1440m) on the left and the 2-Day TF on the right: Looks like the Blue LSMA in the 2-Day TF still has room to go up to 80% or higher level before one decent consolidation event then one more serious move up before having a major consolidation event within the next 3 to 5 weeks. My opinion...

註釋

240m and 480m:

註釋

240m and 360m TF's:

註釋

Compare this 240m / 480m TF chart with yesterday's 240m /480m TF chart. NOTE the progression of the Phoenix ARI on yesterday's and todays.

註釋

12h & 18h TF's:

註釋

I'm simply posting the 4-Day and 5-Day charts to let you see why it's my "belief" we have more uptrend coming and why I'm not losing heart. The main reason is the Phoenix ARI in both TF's below: I need to get back to work in my server room after I make this post. Have a good day, Everyone!

David

4-Day:

5-Day:

註釋

Hi everyone,

Apologies for the delay with updates. I've been super busy with my mining room remodel and power upgrade. The County Electrical Inspector is coming by again tomorrow. Hopefully, my electrical contractor has everything up to snuff now and the inspection will pass this time.

I will be hard at work the remainder of this week building fan frames for my two remaining racks; get wall up on the other end of the mining room and install a 30 inch wide entry door into the mining closet.

I currently have my 30 Amp circuits temporarily ran on the ground and tapped straight to the front of the Main Panel during this power upgrade. Which means I will also have to run 8 new PERMANENT 30 Amp circuits wired properly in the ceiling. As well as 4 new PERMANENT 20 Amp circuits for all of my box fans and large intake and exhaust fans. So, hopefully, it will be completed by this weekend.

Here's a look at how the mining room is coming along: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2865914.new

The Phoenix ARI just bottomed out with the Stochastic RSI in the Daily TF. The Blue LSMA is also relatively low. Is it 20% or lower? No, but it's still pretty low at 32%. Would we prefer it lower than 20%? Sure we would... Which means there is a chance we have downward pressure a few days longer before going up significantly.

When looking at how many days remains to my Black Vertical Time Line for June 6, 2018, it appears the chance for $17,000 by June 6th isn't looking very good. I still believe we arrive at $12,000 without issue. However, we might go up as high as $15,000 before having a major consolidation event that will find bottom around mid July before pumping up again to finally test ATH and reach the top of our UT (Up Thrust) around September 1, 2018.

NOTE: The schematic is subject to change depending on how high we go up between now and first week of June. If we go up to only $12,000, there's a good chance we are in a LARGE Accumulation Schematic over the course of the entire year of 2018 as shown here in this example chart. The following chart is ONLY one example of a number of types of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics. So, I'm NOT saying this is how it will play out if we only go to around or by the first week of June. This is an example of a possibility of how it could play out. We will know more by the indicators.

註釋

A Message to Faithful Followers:

I used to post so many updates about a year ago that I had people complaining and unsubscribing from my channel because of all the email notifications they would receive when I updated publications. Not that it bothered me, cause it didn't. I'm simply said that to say the following:

I'm currently in talks with a with a group of trading experts. Several of us are coming together to provide a number of services to subscribers. The website is up and running. I believe there is still a bit more work left to do on the website but services are currently available now to subscribers. I will elaborate more on this company and its services after I purchase a Premiere Trading View Membership. I must have a Premiere membership in order to discuss it or have it in my signature box. I'm not purchasing Premiere membership until the mining room is completed.

Once my mining room (with its upgrades) are completed, I will be back to full swing with trading. Meaning, I will be back to spending many hours daily studying charts on many different crypto currency pairs and posting my findings. However, I may end up posting more information on the new website than what is published here on Trading View. I may publish 50% or more information on a particular crypto currency pair on the other website than what I publish here.

There will also be opportunities for educational services as well on the other website. I will be investing a great deal of time and effort into putting together long term trading strategies/solutions for crypto currencies. We will also get into mid and short term trading strategies as well.

I personally feel it's important for a new trader to focus on mid and long term trading strategies in the beginning before taking further risks in short term trades when the volatility and liquidity are present. It's my opinion to take the time to gain experience with mid and long term trades before dabbling into short term trades. It may be best to find success FIRST by understanding and knowing long term strategies. Once success is found with mid and long term trades, some gains can be used to dabble and gain experience in trading successfully with short term strategies.

So, expect me to be in full swing as a full time trader once again some time in the first or second week of June. Which means more updates and a vast amount of much more knowledge and experience to be gained as we take this journey in crypto currency together.

Cheers,

David

註釋

Well, looks like I was correct on the "...chance we have downward pressure a few days longer before going up significantly."

I posted that comment and chart yesterday:

Yesterday's comment: "The Phoenix ARI just bottomed out with the Stochastic RSI in the Daily TF. The Blue LSMA is also relatively low. Is it 20% or lower? No, but it's still pretty low at 32%. Would we prefer it lower than 20%? Sure we would... Which means there is a chance we have downward pressure a few days longer before going up significantly."

註釋

Forgot to include a chart showing what it looks like now:

註釋

Keep in mind, just because I mention we have more downward pressure continuing 2 to 4 more days does not necessarily mean the price action will go down significantly over the next 2 to 4 days. It simply means not to expect an obvious reversal until 2 to 4 more days. Which would be Friday or Sunday.

註釋

Hi followers,

I know I've been away from BTC a while. My apologies. I've had a LOT going on with my mining room remodel. Wish I had taken the time a couple of days ago to have a quick look at several TF's.

We are currently looking like A LARGE ACCUMULATION SCHEMATIC instead of distribution Schematic.

The 4-Day also looks dangerous right now. I'll explain later this evening with a new publication. I'm preoccupied at the moment.

註釋

4-Day TF:

MORE details in a new publication this evening:

註釋

I got a PM asking about the text bubbles. Pay NO attention to text bubbles in the chart above. They mean absolutely nothing. New publication later this evening.