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Black Friday! Closeout deals on BTC! Up to 80% off!
已更新
Chart Notes
This chart is in logarithmic scale, at a weekly timeframe.
(In green) upwards Fibonacci channel, starting from August 2015 (inside of our broader upwards channel from beginning of BITFINEX history, in white)
(In Blue) A projection (slightly scaled) of the price action between July 2013 and July 2018 (this encompasses the first Bitcoin 'bubble', October 2013 to September 2015)
Invalidation Criteria
This chart/analysis is to be considered invalid if the price drops authoritatively below the green fibonacci channel.
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UGH. In previous analyses, I got caught up in the hope. And how could you not!? There were good signs. Higher lows! Etc!
But in the back of my mind, was a buzzing, annoying sound that told me something was missing. Something like the big drop ETH had a few months ago, falling off a cliff suddenly and taking the path of Maximum Pain. We were missing the attrition! Well, here it is.
However, we're now approaching some supports -- we're sitting right at one at $4,800 , but there's another one close by around $4500... depending on how you're drawing your supports. We're also sitting right on some supports on our upwards fib channel (in green), which are getting tighter as we near the bottom of that channel.
It's possible (even probable) that we'll drop down a bit further and test the bottom of this fib channel, bringing us as low as $3800-$4000 -- depending on how quick the price action is. I'm eyeing $4500 closely, however, as a key support. If that fails, though (and I'm not keeping my fingers crossed that it won't), I'll be watching/waiting for $4000 (*and there's a note at the end about why that's a special number)
Furthermore, the weekly RSI is currently the lowest it's been since April 2015 (i.e., the calm before we started this uptrend/green fib channel) -- although it still has a biiit of room to drop before hitting all time lows... So I'm thinking we don't have too much further down to go before we start to stabilize.
Remember! Between November 2013 and August 2015, Bitcoin lost roughly 80 percent of its value... and then proceeded to go up by about 8000% of the course of 2 years, before hitting its (current) all time high. Not that it will play out the same way, but we've been here before. 80 percent off the all time highs around 20k (this is back of napkin, here) is right around 4k. So, if we repeat history, we don't have too far down to go, short of Bitcoin just collapsing completely. But if it doesn't do that, and we continue to repeat history, we have quite a good ways up to go, from there. And in that case, well... what deals did you get on Black Friday this year?
This chart is in logarithmic scale, at a weekly timeframe.
(In green) upwards Fibonacci channel, starting from August 2015 (inside of our broader upwards channel from beginning of BITFINEX history, in white)
(In Blue) A projection (slightly scaled) of the price action between July 2013 and July 2018 (this encompasses the first Bitcoin 'bubble', October 2013 to September 2015)
Invalidation Criteria
This chart/analysis is to be considered invalid if the price drops authoritatively below the green fibonacci channel.
-----
UGH. In previous analyses, I got caught up in the hope. And how could you not!? There were good signs. Higher lows! Etc!
But in the back of my mind, was a buzzing, annoying sound that told me something was missing. Something like the big drop ETH had a few months ago, falling off a cliff suddenly and taking the path of Maximum Pain. We were missing the attrition! Well, here it is.
However, we're now approaching some supports -- we're sitting right at one at $4,800 , but there's another one close by around $4500... depending on how you're drawing your supports. We're also sitting right on some supports on our upwards fib channel (in green), which are getting tighter as we near the bottom of that channel.
It's possible (even probable) that we'll drop down a bit further and test the bottom of this fib channel, bringing us as low as $3800-$4000 -- depending on how quick the price action is. I'm eyeing $4500 closely, however, as a key support. If that fails, though (and I'm not keeping my fingers crossed that it won't), I'll be watching/waiting for $4000 (*and there's a note at the end about why that's a special number)
Furthermore, the weekly RSI is currently the lowest it's been since April 2015 (i.e., the calm before we started this uptrend/green fib channel) -- although it still has a biiit of room to drop before hitting all time lows... So I'm thinking we don't have too much further down to go before we start to stabilize.
Remember! Between November 2013 and August 2015, Bitcoin lost roughly 80 percent of its value... and then proceeded to go up by about 8000% of the course of 2 years, before hitting its (current) all time high. Not that it will play out the same way, but we've been here before. 80 percent off the all time highs around 20k (this is back of napkin, here) is right around 4k. So, if we repeat history, we don't have too far down to go, short of Bitcoin just collapsing completely. But if it doesn't do that, and we continue to repeat history, we have quite a good ways up to go, from there. And in that case, well... what deals did you get on Black Friday this year?
註釋
PS - sorry about that purple line segment in the chart, slightly below all the price action. I don't know what happened there -- but if you want, you can pretend it's a little worm, coming to eat your BTC and spit it out later at a (hopefully) higher value.註釋
-- UPDATE --We bounced nicely off of ~$4500 last night -- small bounce, for now, but hopeful. A hopeful little bounce.
We'll see if it sticks.
註釋
-- UPDATE --Nope — not such a hopeful bounce. Rejected and continuing to move to the downside, slightly.
There's a smaaaall bullish divergence forming on the hourly chart, though...
As of now, my next target remains at around 4k.
註釋
Ouch!
So, that flash crash took us right to the -80% from ATH (All Time Highs) point.
Looking back once more as a guide, the initial Bitcoin 'bubble'/bull run in 2017 eventually stabilized at around -80% from current highs, but had flash crashes in-between down to about -85%.
We're below the green fibonacci channel in this chart (which much of the analysis is predicated on) -- we will see if we manage to break back into it with some authority.
We may dump as low as ~$2900 (-85% from ATH), in which case hopefully we recover quickly (as in the past) and re-stabilize near -80% ATH levels before beginning a new ascent. If we stay in that price area for long, it's very bad news bears.
Also possible -- we bounce around the current area (-80% ATH, ~$3750-4000k) for a bit and start to recover, *slowly*.
That is a hopeful path, though -- with all of the capitulation happening now, I'm remaining cautious.
註釋
(this chart is Weekly, for broader context)
Just updating the green fib channel here, extending it further back (to the peak of the first BTC bull run) and further forward (into the future), while adjusting the angle a bit.
It still represents a pretty stable uptrend, even within the broader, slightly more long-term uptrend (white lines).
Current outlook/analysis remains more or less the same (this chart just better reflects it):
• Expecting to move mostly sideways over the coming days, mostly between the last-broken support (yellow, ~$5200), and the next one below it, which we are currently sitting on now (orange, ~$3800)
• Also plausible/probable are some brief drops down to the -85% ATH area (~$2800), if history is any guide (see the projection/fractal of previous crash and bull run in blue). This would put us slightly beneath the green fib channel which is _fine_ (and has happened before, before recovering) as long as we do not stay here for long!
• After that (if we don't linger underneath the channel for too long, or crash further from there, invalidating this analysis).
SUPPORT 1: $3800
SUPPORT 2 (brief crashes): $2800
RESISTANCE: $5200
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