#BTCUSD #bitcoin searching for support on the recent rise

and some higher probability levels for support as shown. Current low ~9000s may be sufficient for a more sustained bounce back into this upward channel. However, I think based on the price action we've seen we only see a smaller bounce somewhere under 9500 and then a potential continuation toward ~8800. Closing under these levels would signal swing traders to stop out given the close below a the past swing low at 8818. A more intense version of this theme would be a test at 8500. I'm showing some additional "trendlines", using quotes since you technically can't draw them with a single point, that outline potential parallel trendlines for channel formation; these have worked well in the past and should be seen only as a possible region of temporary resistance if hit.

Overall, if you were a swing trader only here you likely would have anticipated 10k as a strong psychological resistance point and likely consolidation point. Some may claim ETH SEC FUD but I think the price action in Ethereum is more telling than in BTC, where we saw some capitulation candles from some traders/investors. BTC volume has been relatively modest on this current corrective move.

So currently I'm bullish-neutral. When would I start to change my outlook to a more bearish scenario? If we begin to see increasing volume to the downside and evidence of significant weakening on bounces. Until then, not much has changed from mid-April, with respect to Bitcoin at least.

評論:

Chart now in play - 8800/8500 most likely bounce zones for trend continuation, below which current trend called into question.