Full Moon Analysis Bitcoin Weekly -Likely Up Then Down Due To...

2021年6月23日

Enjoy the Full Strawberry Moon... Bitcoin

We have multiple signals to look at on the Bitcoin Weekly timeframe.

Let's get started right away...

Bitcoin Drops ~55%

First, we have a 55.93% drop from the All-Time High hit mid-April to the recent low hit yesterday, 22-June.

See here the chart:

This signal alone calls for a "bounce".
A bounce means prices jumping back up before the continuation of the current move. 
(Moving up before retesting support which will define if we actually go lower or keep growing).

Fibonacci Levels

The 0.618 Fib. retracement level for the current bullish cycle stands at $27160.27... This was my target on a bearish correction.

We saw prices go as low as $28,600 and now resistance is being faced at EMA50.

Here is the chart:

This is a strong level.
Prices can go as low as 0.786 fib. on a strong correction but if the bullish cycle is to continue then the 0.618 should be enough... This weekly candle close will provide much needed information but the trading volume (red) is relatively low, potentially signaling higher prices, specially if you consider the first signal just mentioned.

EMA50 (Bold magenta line)

We are looking at EMA50 here at ~$33750.
This is a very important level for Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe.

Staying above this level can signal that the bulls have a chance to resume the uptrend.

Breaking below it, signals that additional drop is to follow.

We still have several days for this week to end.
Confirmation comes only when the weekly candle closes.

See the same chart with the fibs.

Chart Structure / All-Time Highs (ATHs)

We have two peaks to look at for the following signal: Dec. 2013 and Dec. 2017.

Both these peaks are very different to the current one, Aprils's 2021 All-Time High, the date has also changed.

Here is the chart:


It all depends on how EMA50 as a support level is handled... We are STRONGLY BULLISH LONG-TERM.

Bearish cross of EMA10 and EMA21

A bearish cross between two EMAs can signal upcoming lower prices, but as soon as the cross comes in a bounce tends to take place.

Here is the chart:

I am going to be looking at the death cross on the daily timeframe in a different article on the requests of many.

We will see what it means from my perspective, what it is saying and what we can expect.

Bitcoin Weekly Conclusion

These signals we just saw are a bit of a mixture of bearish and bullish signals.

These are not 100% bearish but neither strongly bullish... We can see anything take place regarding to Bitcoin's price based on technical analysis.

I am of the side that believes that Bitcoin has more to offer before a long-term bear market and maybe a new All-Time High Q4 this same year and surely very high in the year 2022 and beyond.

What will it be?
$100,000, $200,000 or more?

New World Order

We will have another black swam event... Once it happens, we will have a better idea as to how Bitcoin will respond/perform.

Thanks a lot for reading and for your continued/amazing support.

This is Alan Santana.

Namaste.