Cash can be king again!

We are at an interesting point in the market.
Short term we are bouncing but so far it seems weak. I won't play the bounce. Simply too much rejection at the 30's and continuation downward is implied by most indicators and the short term trend.

Mid term: I expect buying pressure to come in at the 25k level but it will have to prove itself to me in terms of at least a 4 hour candle over support for a play.
Longer term: we could see the low 20's to 18. I do not believe 15 or 13k should be considered yet, also we may get there as of now its simple projecture of emotions. In a long term bear market it is not unrealistic to see a 1 year wait until the bull market resumes (very unpopular opinion I know, but historically speaking it's a backed up assumption by the historical trend of previous cycles and something to keep in mind. This is where the greatest profit can be achieved and most people sell at the low).

This is a time to stay calm. Look for longterm confirmations for a trend change(we are talking not just a daily). Cash can sometimes be the strongest position and that's what I am sitting in.
Expect a HUGE amount of extremely bullish and bearish opinions to come out on social media, the news and here. We are at an extreme fear level of the market which brings strong emotional responses.... not reasonable ones.

I do not know with any certainty where we will fall. I do know that the data needs to support ANY kind of opinion. Right now all we can do is look left and history does not have to repeat itself. Hardly a solid trading strategy. I am going to play this market VERY cautiously and look for trends to emerge to confirm my bias prior to trading it.
Again cash can be a very powerful position.

I wish everyone success in their trades and have no fear. That's for everyone else. We trade in certainty with our strategies and risk management. Strategy + risk management = a lot less stress

Cheers,

Philipp