botje11
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Bitcoin H&S target reached, now bigger H&S for big crash 25%+

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
It has been a wonderfull day of trading again, it's just to easy sometimes. I hope some of you also made some good trades. This has been another H&S wich i predicted, even before the left shoulder was completed. I do have to say, the one on the 17.200 high on 7 december 2017, is still the best one with a 3K drop within 4 hours :)



It is looking very weak now, after all the efforts of a few (the support bidding what i mentioned several times yesterday) of holding the 12.400 to 12.200 levels, it still made a big drop!. Even the 11.600/11.800 only gave a temporarily support.
For the short term bearish scenario, it should idealy stay below the 11.800. 12.300 is really the max for the bearish momentum to stay strong. As you know i have opened a big short position wich i started to open from the 12.600 and added up untill the 13.000. I have been trading allot in the mean time, because that's what i do, but for the 'longer' term (days/week), i have lowered my stop to around the 12.300 to guarantee a nice profit. My target is still the aorund the previous low at 9K and probably even lower. This was my plan from the moment i almost perfectly nailed the bottom at 9.400 and turned long there. I would wait for the 12.500ish levels to go short again at higher prices for the next big wave down! So far this longer term plan has worked out perfectly and i will stay with it.
I will however adjust my stop ofcourse and i will adjust my view, only when i will see new signals that tell me to do so. BTC             can always be very surprising.

The one thing i am surprised of the most, the small amount of likes i got. I have some new followers the last few days, but it's still really disappointing when you look at the fact that i pointed out the bottom around 9.400 and predicting the top now around 13.000. That's why i have not been giving any updates today.

So, followers for the ones who appreciate my charts and analysis and the many updates and even more the time and effort i put into them. I suggest you give some back :) I am not talking about money, just try to increase my views. One follower suggested i should use twitter, maybe i will do so in the future, but i just don't have the time to look into it for now. Maybe for now someone can do it FOR me instead :).
評論:
I have seen this trick to many times already, to get fooled again!! Looks like the final support is loosing and it will accelerate downwards, and than all of a sudden a big upwards spike with volume. I got fooled by this several times when i started trading BTC. Just knew it would happen again, that's why i called it in my last update of my previous chart idea

''''For now it think it wil find some support around the 11.200, make another, maybe last small upswing towards 12.500/12.700, than it could go drop below the 11K!'''
評論: By the way, for every one who has been trying to reach me through email, my outlook does not recieve any emails from tradingview anymore, for maybe 2 months already. I have not figured out yet what the problem is. Just so you know i am not ignoring you :)
評論: This blue area is what i expect it stays within and will drop out of within the coming hours
評論:
This one :)
評論: Target of this bullish flag was 11.800, but it got sold immediately. Like i mentioned earlier, 11.800 would idealy be the maximum of this correction. Lets see if the flag gives support at 11.500. If it drops below it and below the 11.400, chances increase that this 11.800 was the top!
評論:
looks like a breakout
評論:
for bullish momentum, should stay above 10.500/10.400
評論: Bullish momentum seems is still high, but decreasing now slowely. It could have a get slightly above 11K, with 11.300 as a max
評論:
This small flag has failed, like i mentioned the previous update, bullish momentum is decreasing. It will probably drop towards 10.550 to form an H&S. BUT this small H&S could fail and make another big spike up towards the 11.100/11.300
評論: And there is the big spike, what a f..cking joke these crypto markets, manipulation is much worse than the normal stock markets, the believers still believe the crypto's will be our salvation :).
Anyway don't get to confused about these movements, just desperate attempts to give buyers confidence to get in!
But even worse, trying to push to higher prices so they can
- trade with profit
- or try to dump higher them selves.
I have been seeing these moves many times, also the past few days, most of the time they are just temporarily. I think there are still to many people trying to get out of Bitcoin at least for the short term!
It's getting higher as i write this, i think i should be a script writer :) Sometimes i think the market is waiting for my updates hahaha LOL :)
評論: 10.600 held as a shot term support, twice now. Now it should have the strenght to look up the low 11K levels, from there it should find some resistance and drop again.
評論: It's almost a guarantee that it will make a drop towards the low of last week. Even in the bullish scenario, it is still within a double bottom pattern. Unless it realy breaks out of this blue pattern (dont stare to blindly at the lines) than it will break below the 10K again and bounce up strong from the previous low again.
Bearish scenario, we will keep on dropping. Depends on the signals and patterns it forms IF it gets to the low again

評論: 10.500 should have held, the bullish flag. Now this blue area has to hold for the short term bulls. Otherwise i see another attempt to break the 10K

評論: I dont know why i have this many views, likes and comments. Also the extra followers. Maybe some of you did what i asked to do in return for my efforts. I want to say thank you for those who did :).
But maybe finally people start to appreciate an objective opinion about these markets. It's not just that i spot on lately, i have done that many times before (ofcourse not always, also wrong sometimes).
Forn now, i am still satisfied enough to keep posting some new ideas and updates. Maybe i will post some views about other coins to in the near future. Good luck all
評論: Big chance it wil make another attempt to get above the 11K
評論: Thank you everyone for the kind words :)
評論: This is what i think will happen for the next day or 2. But only based on my intell now. Patterns on the minute chart can change views or me, so i always try to adapt, within the bigger picture
評論: 10.700 is an obvious (small) resistance, if it can take it out within the hour, than my previous chart is more likely
評論: Going as planned so far, for bearish momentum to stay in extreme modus, it stays below the 10.900, if that happens, i think we will look up he low 9K very soon. But i think it will go towards 11.100/11.300, than consolid
評論: than consolidate between the 10.800 and 11.200ish for a while, than wil start to turn downwards again
評論:
Previous chart (Coinbase) consolidation looks like a bigger bearish flag.
評論: There it is, i am shorting some at 11280
評論: What a joke, I cant short BTC at Bitfinex now, i got the first ones in. Now it just gives an error. What a fucking joke hahaha LOL, they are really getting desperate now
評論: It will probably turn down now! If it stays above 10.900/11.000 expect another upwave. Otherwise this was mostly short covering!
評論: Anyone else have the same problem at Bitfinex? Not being able to go short on BTC?
評論:
these 3 scenario's will probably happen. If it stays above the 11.100, This Impulse wave is far from over, makes the small H&S and bounce up from 10.900/10.800 stil very bullish but with it's limits. Third option, like i said before, mostly short covering and will slowely continue down again. Ofcourse we all now wich one I think will happen. But i am nog blind, that's why i show these 3 options, just to stay as objective as possible!
評論: H&S is being turned into a bullish flag it seems
評論: No buying power to push through 11.400, that's disappointing. Now it's a double top, 11.100 must hold for bullish momentum. Below this level next support is 10.850
評論:
評論: Some funny action going on at 11.000 level, somebody is really unloading BTC at 11.000 a little above. Think fifth attemt of buyers who have bought at least 1000 BTC now at thos levels, but he keeps filling up the bid with 100 BTC, when it's almost bought, gets refilled with 100 again, gets above it and straight away unloads again. Spoofy who has bought up BTC from the 10.000 up? now unloading? Or is just a big player who is selling big. Or is everyone getting fooled with wash trading :)
評論: They just put a 400+ BTC sell wall in at 10950. This does not have to be bearish, games are being played to confuse traders, everytime it has a different outcome.

For now if the this level holds, it could still go up, otherwise bearish momentum will kick in again and we will probably retest the lows again
評論: There is no bounce, so 80% it will drop more now
評論:
評論: Oke, lets evaluate what happened earlier, the big sell orders in the book and the buying of it. Fact is, we are 500 to 600 points lower now. Difference between selling into to bid book, you create selling pressure and red volume candles. If you do it like they did, you make it look like there are some big buyers in play ready to push it higher with a TA chart confirming this and the GREEN volume candles. And in general, you create volume. How much of this was wash trading or not i dont know, probably most of it.
I saw the same shit at the 17.200 top, when it dropped below the 16K i did mention it in one of the updates on January 8. Spoofy had a sell in the book of 800 BTC, i don't remember exactly, but i got bought within 1 minute, the biggest buy order was 300 BTC. 5 minutes later bitcoin started to drop again and we all now what happened later on.

These were my comments:

Comment: SPoofy again with 800 BTC at 15.800, just pocket change LOL :)
Jan 8
Comment: Was not spoofy this time, this seller pulled up the price with 10 dollar while other exchanges were rising, at 18.850 there was one buyer who bought 300 btc at one. Does not seem like something normal to me. I dont know, anyone who has an opinion or knows more, please share
Jan 8
Comment: I am out at 15.760.
What a joke, if this is not manipulation than i dont know what is. Who buys 300 btc at once, and does not know what he is doing. goes up 200 points and than within 5 minutes it just drops again
Jan 8
Comment:

評論: Nobody has an opinion about my last update? Because i THINK i have have figured 'spoofy' out, what his direction/intention is when he comes in action. But i wont share my findings untill some of you think about it too and share it with me :)
評論:
Remember this picture? The double bottom pattern (that did not come true), can say that it broke out upwards now. But now a double top could have been formed here at 11.400/11.500. It got sold immediately the top, at Coinbase it got stuck at 11.400, where Bitstamp reached 11.500 and Bitfinex in between. This does not say very much, but it is something to look at and keep in mind.

Short term it is showing clear strenght! Something we can't deny. It made a higher low at 10.400 and it's still hanging around the 11.400 high now. Chances are a bit bigger that we will break through upwards than go down again. I will probably close my remaining short position if breaks through the 11.600ish.
Everything below the 13K is still bearish, so the bulls should not get to comfortable yet!
評論: TA wise, this is almost a guarantee it will break out upward, it got almost all the signs now. but i have a bad feeling about it (manipulation).
評論: I am shorting it (small position at 11520)
評論: I am closing this one at 11350/11400
評論: I am out
評論: Small fast profit, satified.
I will respond to other comments later
評論: This is what makes me so angry, so many people (daytraders in this case) just got fooled, just get robbed from their money. And they just get away with this shit. After big moves they create trading ranges of 200 to 400 points, play their game and than move it up or down. And almost no one notices this. With Alts its even worse and much much easier
評論: Just like i said, TA wise it was a guarantee it would break out upwards, If it was my first day, i would reall pump long positions from 11.200 and even more at 11.400. Now i short it when it seems to break out on the upside
評論: It will probably drop any minute now
評論: Part to of the drop will start now
評論: Now i am getting the feeling, the same game is being played on the downside. Probably trying to keep it in the 10.800 and 11.400 range
評論:
評論: It is taking to long, will probably drop
評論: This is typical sideways action, low volume, easy to steer. I give it 20% chance it will break out upwards above the 11.400/11.600. They wlll try to play this game as long as possible.
評論: It's getting pushed down, sell wall of 100 btc was not enough, they put in 650 at 11450.
評論: I am shorting it
評論: Posted a new chart
Follow me on Twitter for updates here on TradingView: @botje11TV
Following you. Keep up the good work and thank you!
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Looks like a bullish triangle forming on the 15 minute chart to me from 24th jan -> now. What you think @botje11
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@TTN-,

You mean this on the right? I dont really like it, it forms on the bottom after a bearish move. The on the left (few days ago) is much better, after a big wave up, making a upwards triangle. Ofourse this one can also be something, but i really think for now, they wont let it drop and they wont let it break out yet. If it was expatriation week of options i would say guarantee it stays here. If the CME future has the same efffect? I dont know
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if we have a failed drop here, what do you suggest? Do the bulls win over or will there be another attempt? nothing surprises me anymore.
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Aamir66 Aamir66
ok we broke, just wanted to be prepared nonetheless. :)
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Looks like another H & S forming?
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they're doing it again ! I grrrr
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66,
Yes they are, 50 BTC buy orders were moving up 10 points from the 11.000 and up, 2 orders with 10 points distance. What there objective is now, i dont know. 50/50, opening short positions at higher prices, or longs are already in and try to push it higher. Anyway, i am almost falling a sleep now LOL
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Aamir66 botje11
@botje11, which time zone are you in? I'm so tired of being on my laptop too I just want this to be over now. It's made me super anti-social and sleep deprived.
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, hahaha, i know what your talking about, but try not to put your life on hold. Sometimes just hedge your position, and leave it as it is. A break is very important. So after a day or 2 or even longer, you can look at the market with a fresh view and be objective again. I use all time frames, for small short trades mostly the 1 and 5 min chart
+1 回覆
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