It is looking very weak now, after all the efforts of a few (the support bidding what i mentioned several times yesterday) of holding the 12.400 to 12.200 levels, it still made a big drop!. Even the 11.600/11.800 only gave a temporarily support.
For the short term scenario, it should idealy stay below the 11.800. 12.300 is really the max for the momentum to stay strong. As you know i have opened a big short position wich i started to open from the 12.600 and added up untill the 13.000. I have been trading allot in the mean time, because that's what i do, but for the 'longer' term (days/week), i have lowered my stop to around the 12.300 to guarantee a nice profit. My target is still the aorund the previous low at 9K and probably even lower. This was my plan from the moment i almost perfectly nailed the bottom at 9.400 and turned long there. I would wait for the 12.500ish levels to go short again at higher prices for the next big wave down! So far this longer term plan has worked out perfectly and i will stay with it.
I will however adjust my stop ofcourse and i will adjust my view, only when i will see new signals that tell me to do so. BTC can always be very surprising.
The one thing i am surprised of the most, the small amount of likes i got. I have some new followers the last few days, but it's still really disappointing when you look at the fact that i pointed out the bottom around 9.400 and predicting the top now around 13.000. That's why i have not been giving any updates today.
So, followers for the ones who appreciate my charts and analysis and the many updates and even more the time and effort i put into them. I suggest you give some back :) I am not talking about money, just try to increase my views. One follower suggested i should use twitter, maybe i will do so in the future, but i just don't have the time to look into it for now. Maybe for now someone can do it FOR me instead :).
I have seen this trick to many times already, to get fooled again!! Looks like the final support is loosing and it will accelerate downwards, and than all of a sudden a big upwards spike with volume. I got fooled by this several times when i started trading BTC. Just knew it would happen again, that's why i called it in my last update of my previous chart idea
''''For now it think it wil find some support around the 11.200, make another, maybe last small upswing towards 12.500/12.700, than it could go drop below the 11K!'''
This one :)
looks like a breakout
for bullish momentum, should stay above 10.500/10.400
This small flag has failed, like i mentioned the previous update, bullish momentum is decreasing. It will probably drop towards 10.550 to form an H&S. BUT this small H&S could fail and make another big spike up towards the 11.100/11.300
Anyway don't get to confused about these movements, just desperate attempts to give buyers confidence to get in!
But even worse, trying to push to higher prices so they can
- trade with profit
- or try to dump higher them selves.
I have been seeing these moves many times, also the past few days, most of the time they are just temporarily. I think there are still to many people trying to get out of Bitcoin at least for the short term!
It's getting higher as i write this, i think i should be a script writer :) Sometimes i think the market is waiting for my updates hahaha LOL :)
Bearish scenario, we will keep on dropping. Depends on the signals and patterns it forms IF it gets to the low again
But maybe finally people start to appreciate an objective opinion about these markets. It's not just that i spot on lately, i have done that many times before (ofcourse not always, also wrong sometimes).
Forn now, i am still satisfied enough to keep posting some new ideas and updates. Maybe i will post some views about other coins to in the near future. Good luck all
Previous chart (Coinbase) consolidation looks like a bigger bearish flag.
these 3 scenario's will probably happen. If it stays above the 11.100, This Impulse wave is far from over, makes the small H&S and bounce up from 10.900/10.800 stil very bullish but with it's limits. Third option, like i said before, mostly short covering and will slowely continue down again. Ofcourse we all now wich one I think will happen. But i am nog blind, that's why i show these 3 options, just to stay as objective as possible!
For now if the this level holds, it could still go up, otherwise bearish momentum will kick in again and we will probably retest the lows again
I saw the same shit at the 17.200 top, when it dropped below the 16K i did mention it in one of the updates on January 8. Spoofy had a sell in the book of 800 BTC, i don't remember exactly, but i got bought within 1 minute, the biggest buy order was 300 BTC. 5 minutes later bitcoin started to drop again and we all now what happened later on.
These were my comments:
Comment: SPoofy again with 800 BTC at 15.800, just pocket change LOL :)
Comment: Was not spoofy this time, this seller pulled up the price with 10 dollar while other exchanges were rising, at 18.850 there was one buyer who bought 300 btc at one. Does not seem like something normal to me. I dont know, anyone who has an opinion or knows more, please share
Comment: I am out at 15.760.
What a joke, if this is not manipulation than i dont know what is. Who buys 300 btc at once, and does not know what he is doing. goes up 200 points and than within 5 minutes it just drops again
Remember this picture? The double bottom pattern (that did not come true), can say that it broke out upwards now. But now a double top could have been formed here at 11.400/11.500. It got sold immediately the top, at Coinbase it got stuck at 11.400, where Bitstamp reached 11.500 and Bitfinex in between. This does not say very much, but it is something to look at and keep in mind.
Short term it is showing clear strenght! Something we can't deny. It made a higher low at 10.400 and it's still hanging around the 11.400 high now. Chances are a bit bigger that we will break through upwards than go down again. I will probably close my remaining short position if breaks through the 11.600ish.
Everything below the 13K is still bearish, so the bulls should not get to comfortable yet!
I will respond to other comments later
You mean this on the right? I dont really like it, it forms on the bottom after a bearish move. The on the left (few days ago) is much better, after a big wave up, making a upwards triangle. Ofourse this one can also be something, but i really think for now, they wont let it drop and they wont let it break out yet. If it was expatriation week of options i would say guarantee it stays here. If the CME future has the same efffect? I dont know
Yes they are, 50 BTC buy orders were moving up 10 points from the 11.000 and up, 2 orders with 10 points distance. What there objective is now, i dont know. 50/50, opening short positions at higher prices, or longs are already in and try to push it higher. Anyway, i am almost falling a sleep now LOL