Bitcoin and The Failed IH&S, Higher Low or New Low

已更新

As thoroughly explained in the previous analysis, why this inverse H&S would fail, we have gotten our answer earlier today. Please read my previous analysis to understand why. There were even a few fractals to show this as well, the one i talked about and a follower he told me about another one as well. Both quite identical to this one. This doesn't mean the inverse H&S is completely off the table, but those chances are very low at the moment. A few days ago i gave it 25% now it's even less. This weekend things were getting a bit confusing though with all that sideways action, where i did not want to see the price getting above the 4200 after making that small H&S but my maximum price was 4300 for my analysis to remain valid.

At the moment we are making an identical move as we saw a few days ago, like it's preparing to make a Bart move, but the volume picture is NOT the same so far. For this bear flag to succeed and stay valid we need to stay below the 4000/4030. There is more room to the upside as we can retest the breakout around 4100/4050, which would still be normal. But anything above that level puts the bearish scenario in real danger. I only see a move above 4200ish giving the bulls hope again and increase the chances for that inverse H&S again.

On the left we can see a possible bearish wedge, of which we are missing that last leg up. But we had the same thing when we dropped from the 4400 to the 3850, was also a wedge from which we missed the last leg up. Anyway, this wedge and the failed H&S both indicate we should see a retest of the lows again. But i am going to be careful with that. This market can always be full of surprises. First target is around 3700/3750, which is the target of the current bear flag (assuming it stays valid as mentioned above).

Now the 3500/3600 support zone won't be an easy one to crack i think, we have seen some good buying support there that eventually created that double Bottom formation i kept calling for that brought us to our 4400 zone. When i look at some alts (the list i usually show), it's starting to look like they are getting ready to get dumped again. So nothing good on that side so far. Only a good push up from Bitcoin' can prevent that from happening.

As i am writing this, the bulls are making an attempt. If they can keep the current candle close above the previous one, it would mean the retest of the 4100 becomes much more likely.

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Previous analysis:

Bitcoin H&S versus IH&S, Bears Already Gone?

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Just a retest of former support won't be enough for these alts. Needs a much bigger push up to give bulls hope again.

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Current (possible) Bart move compared to the one of a few days ago.

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Bulls are still trying inside this bear flag to push up, but so far there is clear rejection there at the high. So would need much more buying volume to push through it.
It looks more like a bear flag this time than the previous one, since the movement is inside a range of 90 points compared to 150 points the previous one. Showing that bears are stepping in sooner than a few days ago. The Bear flag gives room towards 4020ish (with the exception of a wick).

For the ones who are not aware, the prices i keep mentioning all the time, are the USD exchange prices like Bitstamp/Gdax.

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And the wick and rejection of the bear flag. Now the 3950ish is a support inside this bear flag. Can be a turning point between the bears and bulls INSIDE this bear flag

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From the upside to the downside of the bear flag. So far a small bounce up, but if it can not get above the 3950/60, we will probably see the bear flag break and we continue to drop

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And there it is, the break of the bear flag :). As mentioned above, this bear flag was probably different than the previous one. If this post gets double the likes today, i will make an educational post about the Bart move from a few days ago today's bear flag and anything in between. Otherwise i won't, because it will be a few hours of work.

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Ouch

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There is no bounce so far, so unless we break the 3840/60, we will make another drop

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A small bear flag again, if it doesn't break the resistance of it, we could see another quick dump. But i think it will cool down after that one. So it's sideways from here or after the next one. Unless we see a high volume drop below the 3700/3650

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If this bounce get above the 3840, it could be the low is set, but at least things will cool down.

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Looks like a small inverse H&S here, so we could a bit more movement up. Unless it turns into a small bearish wedge. The longer it takes, the bigger the chances for a bearish wedge.

The speed of the drop is gone at the moment it seems. It could also bee that we have a (temp) low set at 3750. It could mean my bearish picture is already done. But would need much more bullish signs before making me convinced of that. Alts are still completely dead, not bounces there. So suggesting the bearish movement is not over yet

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Tether is playing a role again, giving a slightly different picture between the 2 exchanges. Looks like the "rally" has already failed. I can think of 2 options now:

- Testing the low around 3750 or slightly above it around 3780 to make a higher low for a bigger bear flag.
- Making a big drop towards the 3600 (or even lower), think this is less likely for today. It would be more likely to make a bear trap just below the previous low and create some bullish divergence for a bigger upwards correction towards the 3950/4000

There is one pattern i have not shown yet, because normally i ignore them, but there is that H&S with the neckline around 3900 and the head at the weekend high around 4250, giving us a target around 3600.

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Looks like they are holding it, so think they might make another push up towards the 3870/80

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This is that ugly H&S i am talking about. Now we could see a retest of the neckline around 3900. If we stay below the 3880ish, i believe the 3600 is still likely to get hit by tomorrow.

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The small inverse H&S that turned into a wedge and now turned into a triangle. Don't think it will be able to turn into another pattern. So i think a breakout of this pattern, on either side will be the direction that gets to be chosen.

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Seems to be some resistance here, so could be this all turns into a bear flag again or a wedge as bitfinex shows. I still think this might be a small pullback before we see another push to 3920. But a break of 3800 might mean we will see another drop happening. I have my eyes set at a push up instead of down.

The difference between finex and the USD exchanges is really annoying sometimes. Getting different signs and patterns, would almost think they do it on purpose

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Seems like it is failing. I still think the move down is too soon, but hey, i am i to tell the market it's doing the wrong move here :)

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As promised, the Bart move analysis, don't forget to give it a like as well :)

Exclusive Update, Bitcoin And Solving The Bart Move Puzzle

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Just when it started to slip away and drop, out of nowhere a push up happened. As i kept mentioning the previous few updates, it was too soon for another drop. There is room for another (small) push up, as those targets earlier suggested. But i am calling it a day now, think 18 hours of work for a day is more than enough already :)

Good luck all, and thank you very much for the likes :)

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So it seems the market has been listening to me :), that it was too soon for another drop. Now this move up still fits inside the picture of a retest of former support as we can see on the left. That says the high could be set already. There is bit more to still fit inside the bearish picture, but the higher it goes the less reliable it becomes of course.

On the right we can see a possible inverse H&S in the making here. These are ugly as hell in this shape and i don't even think i have seen one of the succeed the past months. The double bottom pattern was formed yesterday at the 3700ish low. Just like we had with the same Bart move on Saturday. Which also turned into a possible inverse H&S. Now this one has been made at a low and is smaller in size, which increases it's chances. But i still don't like it. A move above 4000ish could change my mind