Idea: If you zoom out you find that Bitcoin has been posting quarterly(ish) cycles of bull and bear since our traditional bull market cycle ended in February>March 2021.
Preface: Given that bulls/whales have a challenge to try to run up the market one more time before the US fed begins QT/ tapering, we are looking for signs of a rally in the next ~4-6 weeks at latest. Such a timeline would align with a historical pattern of the 20/21w MA bull market support band inversions between bullish and bearish sentiment over the past 4 years, it would also align well with what appears to be net accumulation of Bitcoins from exchanges since late July 2021.
Whats Next?: Bitcoin is crawling just above a key support level, while also being driven down by a strong resistance level, driving price into a squeeze... not unlike what we saw in May and September. Give that this resistance is converging on a key support level in a pattern reminiscent of late July when it bounced from $29k, a similar fractal could play out here-
Whales/MM would drive price into this confluence of resistance and support between $39k and $41k to test whether bulls show up or more downside awaits us. I expect such a move to be preceded by a notable inflow of Bitcoins, because the whales/MM need confirmation that retail will show up if they trigger a larger rally to the upside (that they can sell into).
In this case, I'm not confident in a new ATH at this time, given the current macroeconomic outlook, but we could certainly rally to the top side of the current market and even into the $60ks. However there are always plenty of surprises in this market, maybe we'll see a Spot ETF approved just in time to break that major resistance level between $63k and $69k.
Now if we don't post a bullish breakout from here? Well I will look for a retest of lower support levels marked in green. At the very lowest range, I wouldn't expect anything below $20k, because $20k is a very significant confluence of support from the 2017 cycle top, and an 11 year old support level for Bitcoin that was tested only at the most extreme bearish conditions, like the 2022 COVID Black Swan.
Preface: Given that bulls/whales have a challenge to try to run up the market one more time before the US fed begins QT/ tapering, we are looking for signs of a rally in the next ~4-6 weeks at latest. Such a timeline would align with a historical pattern of the 20/21w MA bull market support band inversions between bullish and bearish sentiment over the past 4 years, it would also align well with what appears to be net accumulation of Bitcoins from exchanges since late July 2021.
Whats Next?: Bitcoin is crawling just above a key support level, while also being driven down by a strong resistance level, driving price into a squeeze... not unlike what we saw in May and September. Give that this resistance is converging on a key support level in a pattern reminiscent of late July when it bounced from $29k, a similar fractal could play out here-
Whales/MM would drive price into this confluence of resistance and support between $39k and $41k to test whether bulls show up or more downside awaits us. I expect such a move to be preceded by a notable inflow of Bitcoins, because the whales/MM need confirmation that retail will show up if they trigger a larger rally to the upside (that they can sell into).
In this case, I'm not confident in a new ATH at this time, given the current macroeconomic outlook, but we could certainly rally to the top side of the current market and even into the $60ks. However there are always plenty of surprises in this market, maybe we'll see a Spot ETF approved just in time to break that major resistance level between $63k and $69k.
Now if we don't post a bullish breakout from here? Well I will look for a retest of lower support levels marked in green. At the very lowest range, I wouldn't expect anything below $20k, because $20k is a very significant confluence of support from the 2017 cycle top, and an 11 year old support level for Bitcoin that was tested only at the most extreme bearish conditions, like the 2022 COVID Black Swan.
註釋
Note that this is a 4D chart, so the approaching test of support could be anywhere in the coming days to a couple weeks. Reference that convergence of resistance and support on the right side of the chart.
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