Game over: the market has spoken

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As you can see, we had a very disappointing rally back upwards, with a volume divergence. Although I had a lot of hope for a breakout to the upside, perhaps creating another 2013 situation with 2 bubbles, it was quite clear the whole time that this was just hope - the volume spoke volumes (hah.) The volume has now broken out with a resounding "we're going down." Bitcoin looks pretty hopeless here, and it seems the C leg has begun. Prepare for major panic from all corners, and ridiculously oversold RSI levels. Possibly even a flash crash during the selling climax (if you are buying on leverage, make sure it's no more than 2x.) I believe $4,000 and $3,000 provide excellent entry points for the next market cycle. If we are lucky, it might even just go down to $5,000 as per my 2nd last chart. However, my buys are at 4k and 3k. If I miss the train, I will trade my way back up to my previous BTC balance with good ol' leverage.

Notes about fundamentals

Bitcoin is not dead. It's simply fell out of fashion. People stopped talking about it. It's also not so easy to buy with credit anymore. World outlook is improving with the NK news and such, so people are feeling safe to hold fiat currency again. The credit cycle is also ending (interest rates going up,) meaning cash will be king for a few years.

Notes about regulation

Regulation is getting stronger, yes, but in the most positive way. Recently, Japan punished a bunch of exchanges, which is possibly one reason prices started to plummet. But we need these kind of actions to stop really bad things from happening. If exchanges are allowed to operate completely unregulated, then we will have more hackings, more Mt Gox events, more employees running off with the money. Of course, decentralised exchanges should fix these issues, but until they become good enough to compete with centralised ones - we have to rely on regulation. Note that also exchanges buy and sell into fiat currency. Whether you like it or not, fiat is regulated, and thus in order to trade for fiat you need to understand regulation is required. If you want to go completely off the grid, don't sell your bitcoin into fiat and consider trying to use it to pay for everything without converting it to fiat first.

Not only that, but decent regulation means that profiting from bitcoin trading is legitimised. People who managed to make stupid amounts of money last year were probably a little worried about (a) if the money they had was actually real, what if it got hacked, an exchange didn't send their money to the account, they failed KYC tests, etc. and (b) what would the government have to say about it?

The kind of regulation and government scrutiny Bitcoin is getting right now is THE BEST KIND. It's long term bullish . It legitimises bitcoin , keeps investors safe, and allows Bitcoin itself to keep running as it is - a completely decentralised store of value (besides the buying and selling into fiat part.)

I am super bullish on Bitcoin long term, and wish it the best

Bitcoin is one of the greatest stores of values known to mankind, and a genius invention that should stand the test of time. Although a competitor may come along one day, until then, I remain bullish on Bitcoin , and will do whatever it takes to increase my stack. Remember what happens after bubbles pop - accumulation, and eventually long term appreciation.
交易進行: Hope you didn't get caught up in the chop! ;)

I suspect we are currently on our last leg down, and the "capitulation candle" is coming. This is the selling climax, and will become an excellent buying opportunity.

Eyes on the game! and don't buy on margin.
評論: No capitulation candle just yet. It may play out a little slower as in the original chart.
評論: Target is still valid.
評論: Took a while but it finally broke down and is heading for 3k probably.
Hi jack. do you still think the smae senario down?
Looking forward to more TA, good stuff.
Outstanding post sir. Thx for taking the time to share your thoughts. Thumbs up!!
Did you make calculation when placing the arrows? The second arrow seem to be working perfectly.
@hkh222, it was complete luck. that being said, the top and the bottom of the arrows are at major support/resistance areas.
Thank you very much.
Excellent analysis thanks for sharing
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