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BTCUSD short

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Unfortunately, I don't think BTC is anywhere near a bounce. The markets have a tendency to do better than expected when things are good, and worse than expected when they're bad. I hate to say it but I think a 50%+ further decline from here is possible. BTC likes to tap previous highs. And the trendline & fibonacci roughly coincide with ~$4500, which also puts us roughly at the C point in an Elliot Cycle. Next one down is $3000, although I don't yet know if that's on the table.

註釋

I should probably specify that I'm not actually shorting BTC. I generally advise against margin trading in crypto. Rather, I am going risk-off (meaning selling) for a portion of my position at these levels, with eyes to re-enter (buy) lower.

交易進行

Overestimated the interim low; it's already rebounding toward 2nd target (~9000). This area will be key - I think it's a bull trap (read: bulls get trapped), but if it shows strength, I would consider my prediction to have been invalidated. Either way, I'm hodling, with some cash on the sidelines.

交易進行

Updated time frames slightly. Things are moving faster than expected. I think we hit the interim top, nearly exactly on the mark called @ $9000. Bull trap time. Short term heavily bearish, medium & long-term heavily bullish. Still looking for the $4500 buy opportunity that I kicked off this post with. It could get ugly here soon, but to me that would be the sign the bear trend is almost over.

交易進行

Been a while. Downside target taking much longer to hit than expected. So we have to re-adjust and re-assess. Still looking at $4800 as the magic number (to start buying back in), but still cautious that below $3000 is a possible "worst case" scenario.

I will ladder back in between $4800 and $2800, with gradually increasing position size to coincide with lower prices. So think 5%, 10%, 15%, etc.; with a pre-determined maximum investment amount to be spread over this range.

Cheers