Continued Wyckoff Accumulation Change in Plans

已更新

In my earlier post about Wyckoff I estimated that the total corrective wave would have played out earlier. However it looks like the first wave was extended a lot to the low on the 28th of March. As of now I extended Phase B a little more to make sure the essential waves are in play before we head on to Phase C. Last night we found support on the 0.5 fibonacci trend-extension (the trend of the high of march 27th to low march 28th to high march 28th). After this is rallied back to the .618 fibonacci of the very first wave of phase B. This also created a double top *, which in most cases is a bearish scenario when there is a close below (3) around 34,900. When this happens we could see a drop to the .786 of the earlier mentioned fibonacci trend extension, or in the worst case scenario we could go for a test of the support line.

At the moment of writing bitcoin is also testing the .382 of the first wave, when this holds a triple bottom is created which is a bullish scenario when it closes above the double top mentioned before. Just keep the two scenarios in mind. When there is no breakout into either direction a trading range can be established over the weekend and could result in a volatile Monday.

* the double top is also supported by a 1.272 fib trend extension of the last 6 weeks. In the chart below you can also see that the target of Spring is somewhat at the same level of the 1.618 extension.

註釋

Comment: The level we currently are testing is also supported by the 1.618 when drawing a fib trend-extension (from the low of August 2015 to the high of 2017 back to the low of dec 2018). However it is likely that we dip below this level but close above it.