Do you really think Bitcoin can dip up to $8000 or less!?
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It is true that markets are sometimes hard to predict and the trader can never be 100% sure about the prediction.
However, when we go up soo many traders are calling new highs and when the price dips it looks like the end of the World is coming.
"Buy low, sell high!" tells us that if the price makes a strong move down we should more times call LONG than SHORT. In practice some do, but the majority doesn't.
Even if it's more probable to go up from there, then to go down. 90% probability is quiet a safe game to play. That's the probability of BTC not going to $8000 again (in our opinion).
There will be a few more posts showing the arguments and logic behind that, but let's start with historical comparison.
At the start of the previous bubble, we have local hypes where the majority of them finished as seen from the graph:
- dip with 1,2,3 local top (some with higher low other with lower low but actually it does not matter that much)
- x as recovery top (always going beyond top 3 and giving a false hope that we are going directly back to a year high)
- consolidation (which can happen faster or slower)
We posted way before the majority about local top and correction move into consolidation zone (check related ideas).
As you can see it hit upside perfectly and went just a bit out of the expected zone on the down, but that doesn't change the structure.
In the next posts, we will show more arguments about why it is so hard for BTC to go down from here instead of moving sideways or up.
Both of these scenarios should be great for altcoins market and none of them leads us to $8000! 90% sure about that.
Stay tuned and follow us and this idea so you can get automatic reminders.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Remember to trade safely!
If you just want to thank us you can hit like and leave a comment. Thank you for your support.
However, when we go up soo many traders are calling new highs and when the price dips it looks like the end of the World is coming.
"Buy low, sell high!" tells us that if the price makes a strong move down we should more times call LONG than SHORT. In practice some do, but the majority doesn't.
Even if it's more probable to go up from there, then to go down. 90% probability is quiet a safe game to play. That's the probability of BTC not going to $8000 again (in our opinion).
There will be a few more posts showing the arguments and logic behind that, but let's start with historical comparison.
At the start of the previous bubble, we have local hypes where the majority of them finished as seen from the graph:
- dip with 1,2,3 local top (some with higher low other with lower low but actually it does not matter that much)
- x as recovery top (always going beyond top 3 and giving a false hope that we are going directly back to a year high)
- consolidation (which can happen faster or slower)
We posted way before the majority about local top and correction move into consolidation zone (check related ideas).
As you can see it hit upside perfectly and went just a bit out of the expected zone on the down, but that doesn't change the structure.
In the next posts, we will show more arguments about why it is so hard for BTC to go down from here instead of moving sideways or up.
Both of these scenarios should be great for altcoins market and none of them leads us to $8000! 90% sure about that.
Stay tuned and follow us and this idea so you can get automatic reminders.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Remember to trade safely!
If you just want to thank us you can hit like and leave a comment. Thank you for your support.
註釋
Why there is much more chance to break up after consolidation and not down!If we do break down it would most probably be a false one to take out the weak hands.
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